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SEPTEMBER 22, 2003
Washington Outlook
Edited by Mike McNamee

Can Howard Dean Swim in the Mainstream?

The Democratic Establishment has reacted to former Vermont Governor Howard Dean's surge to the top of the Democratic Presidential field with a combination of shock and awe. They're awed by the Washington outsider's incredible ability to build a grassroots organization and raise more funds than better-known rivals. The shock is their fear that Dean could lead the party to a catastrophic defeat in 2004, much like another antiwar insurgent, George S. McGovern.

Well aware of those tremors, Dean is scrambling to transform his campaign from an insurgency to the Democratic center. Privately, he's reaching out to party elders, from union heads to moderate mandarins like former Democratic National Committee Chairman Bob Strauss. Publicly, he's working to broaden his mostly white, hard-left coalition to bring in minorities, moderates, independents, and even pro-gun conservative Democrats.

But Dean, who's at the head of the pack in both New Hampshire and Iowa polls, could discover that his outreach efforts come at a steep cost. In wooing moderate leaders, Dean stresses his budget-balancing record in Vermont and his pro-gun stance -- positions that might surprise some of the left-wing activists who have stoked the fires of the Dean candidacy. And opponents are quick to accuse him of flip-flopping on long-held positions on free trade, the Cuban embargo, and Social Security reform to win the backing of key voter blocs.

The greatest danger: Dean could lose his image as a tell-it-like-it-is outsider in the mold of maverick Republican John McCain. That's particularly risky with General Wesley K. Clark poised to challenge Dean for the anti-pol mantle (box). "You can't be considered the straight talker if you look as though you're pandering," warns retiring Representative Cal Dooley (D-Calif.). Dean's challenge is to portray his policy changes as an open-minded reevaluation of national issues -- not as politically inspired turnarounds.

Dean's personal diplomacy is already paying dividends. Such party stalwarts as Gerald W. McEntee, president of the American Federation of State, County, & Municipal Employees, have gotten a hard sell from the governor. Privately, some labor leaders are weighing Dean's argument that he's the most electable candidate. Dean is also bidding for support from minorities, who have been notably absent from his rallies. He's one of the first white candidates to start running spots on African-American radio stations.

But Dean is also making inroads on the party's right, impressing moderates such as Strauss and Representative Charles Stenholm (D-Tex.). "I said when McGovern became our party's nominee that he was too far to the left," recalls Strauss, who was chosen to clean up the mess after the Dems' 1972 debacle. "When you look at it issue by issue, I don't think that's the case with Dean."

On some of those issues, however, Dean could be courting trouble. His Democratic foes say the governor has backed away from talk about raising the Social Security retirement age -- anathema to aging baby boomers -- and has dropped his opposition to the embargo on Cuba, a vital issue in closely divided Florida. And while he supported NAFTA, he now sounds more like a unionist fair trader, emphasizing the need to impose labor and environmental standards on trading partners.

Six months ago, as one of the longest of long shots in an overcrowded field, Dean's biggest challenge was just to get noticed. He has done that -- in spades. Now he has to keep the base that he energized with his insurgent campaign while expanding his appeal to the Democratic mainstream. Coming from behind may be easier than staying in front.

By Alexandra Starr


Ready for Battle

One of the Democrats' longest-running guessing games may be resolved on Sept. 19, when retired General Wesley K. Clark appears at the University of Iowa College of Law. According to associates, the former NATO commander will toss his helmet into the ring, becoming the 10th Democratic Presidential aspirant in an overstuffed field.

Skeptics say Clark's overreaching. He's a political novice, registering in the low single digits in polls, without money or a field organization. "He's a smart, talented guy, but his organized support is limited," says independent New Hampshire pollster Richard Bennett.

But the Clark camp insists the field is still wide open. In polls, two-thirds of Democrats can't name any of the nine candidates. Fans say Clark, 59, appeals both as a military leader (à la Dwight D. Eisenhower) and a quirky outsider (à la H. Ross Perot). And Clark could be the Dems' most credible critic of George W. Bush's Iraq troubles.

As for troops, Skip Rutherford, president of the Clinton Presidential Foundation, says a cadre of former Clintonites -- including former White House Counsel Bruce Lindsey and Chief of Staff Thomas "Mack" McLarty -- is ready to bivouac in Little Rock. "The 'Friends of Bill' network is alive and well -- and ready to become 'Warriors for Wes,"' Rutherford says.

By Lee Walczak





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