Get Four
Free Issues

Subscribe to BW
Customer Service

Current BW Magazine Table of Contents

August 25, 2003 BW Magazine Table of Contents

August 25, 2003 The Future of Tech Table of Contents



THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY

THE BIG PICTURE
Why Tech Will Bloom Again

ROAD MAP
The Quest for the Next Big Thing

ROADBLOCKS
Where Danger Lurks

MANAGEMENT
The eBay Economy

INVESTING
Yin and Yang Stocks




AUGUST 25, 2003
THE FUTURE OF TECH -- ROAD MAP

Tech Wave 3: Plastic Electronics
Next to innovative plastics, silicon could soon look clunky and dated

It may be Hollywood's most famous one-word line: "Plastics." Since Dustin Hoffman's character ignored that career advice in the 1967 hit The Graduate, plastics have become the most prevalent material in offices and homes. And now, plastics are set to pull off a sequel -- in electronics. Don't look for plastic chips to be used for heavy-duty computing chores anytime soon, but they could rival silicon sometime in the 2010s.


Until then, researchers worldwide see major new opportunities for information technology in this cheap and pliable alternative to silicon. Their targets range from wall-size television displays to ultra-tiny transistors. That sweeping potential has captivated some heavyweight companies in computers and consumer electronics.

Today, the movement is just getting in gear. An innovative plastic screen was unveiled this year on a digital camera from Eastman Kodak (EK ) Co., which in 1979 discovered the first organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs). Unlike the liquid-crystal displays (LCDs) in cell phones and laptops, plastic OLEDs don't break when dropped. And while LCDs require a separate light source, OLEDs generate their own light, so they save energy, and "colors are more vibrant," says James J. O'Brien, Dow Chemical (DOW ) Co.'s technical director for displays.

Dow has teamed up with Motorola (MOT ) Inc. and Xerox Corp. to develop polymer inks and printing methods that could spew out plastic circuitry like so much newspaper. That might one day lead to video wallpaper studded with millions of light-emitting specks of plastic. So walls could turn into TV sets or change color to match the season. DuPont (DD ) Co. has similar ambitions and is working with Universal Display (PANL ), Sarnoff, and Lucent Technologies (LU ). "Wall-size displays are going to happen -- perhaps within five years," says Ananth Dodabalapur, an electrical engineer at the University of Texas.

Portable computers with OLED screens from Sony (SNE ) Corp., Sanyo Electric (SANYY ) Inc., and others should show up in stores next year. And in May, Toshiba Corp. and Matsushita Electric Industrial (MC ) Corp. unveiled 17-inch monitors with screens printed by squirting polymer inks from special ink-jet printers.

Inkjet systems and other printing techniques are now heading down the path blazed by silicon chipmaking equipment -- producing ever-smaller plastic circuit lines and transistors. How tiny can they get? Arthur J. Epstein, head of Ohio State University's Center for Materials Research, says conducting plastics may eventually turn individual electrons into transistors. The direction of an electron's spin, which can be controlled magnetically, would determine whether it's on or off -- or storing a one or a zero. As with polymer displays, tiny circuits of this type could be printed by special inkjets.

Not everyone buys into this idea. Greg E. Blonder, former head of materials research at the old AT&T Bell Laboratories and now a venture capitalist at Morgenthaler Ventures, is betting on molecular-size transistors such as the benzene-and-hydrogen molecule concocted last year by Hewlett-Packard Laboratories. "Nature computes with molecules," he explains. Either way, commercial versions of ultra-small plastic chips may be a decade down the road.

On the other hand, plastic chips seem just the ticket for jobs that don't require superfast processing, such as "smart" tags on manufactured items. These chips could also be the guts of "ubiquitous computing" -- giving virtually everything in homes and offices a wireless link to a local network or the Web. Then milk containers could tell the refrigerator when they are running low, so the fridge could post a note on its OLED screen. No wonder chipmakers such as Infineon, IBM, and Philips are more than just nostalgic about The Graduate.



By Otis Port


 BW MALL   SPONSORED LINKS
Buy a link now!

Get BusinessWeek directly on your desktop with our RSS feeds.XML

Add BusinessWeek news to your Web site with our headline feed.

Click to buy an e-print or reprint of a BusinessWeek or BusinessWeek Online story or video.

To subscribe online to BusinessWeek magazine, please click here.

Learn more, go to the BusinessWeekOnline home page

Back to Top
 
 
TODAY'S MOST POPULAR STORIES

  1. News Corp.'s Talks with Microsoft: A Flawed Deal?
  2. Stocks Fall after GDP Revision
  3. America's Best Place to Raise Your Kids
  4. Apple's Schiller Defends iPhone App Approval Process
  5. Social Media Will Change Your Business

Get Free RSS Feed >>
  MARKET INFO
DJIA 10433.71 -17.24
S&P 500 1105.65 -0.59
Nasdaq 2169.18 -6.83

Portfolio Service Update

Stock Lookup

Enter name or ticker



Media Kit | Special Sections | MarketPlace | Knowledge Centers
McGraw-Hill Cos.