International Outlook
Edited by Cristina Lindblad
Why Fidel Picked This Moment to Crack Down
With the world's attention riveted on the fall of Saddam Hussein, another long-reigning despot has been tightening his grip on the nation he has ruled for 44 years. Since mid-March, Cuba's Fidel Castro has rounded up 78 independent journalists, human rights activists, and democracy advocates. On Apr. 7, a kangaroo court handed down prison sentences of up to 28 years for 74 of the dissidents. The crackdown came as a surprise to those who thought the 76-year-old Castro was mellowing. Pockets of private enterprise have been allowed to spring up over the past decade, and a measure of glasnost has crept into society. "The dissident movement has grown and gained international recognition," says Elizardo Sánchez, a leading Castro opponent. This development warmed relations between Cuba and Europe, and even impressed some U.S. legislators. But that age of tolerance proved all too brief. Says Sánchez: "The Cuban government is using the war in Iraq as a smoke screen to hide the decapitation of the dissident movement."
To some extent, the smoke screen is working. Although the U.S. Congress condemned the arrests and Sweden warned Castro that relations with the European Union could suffer, other reactions have been muted. Still, the latest round of repression threatens to halt -- and even reverse -- the loosening of the U.S. embargo on trade with Cuba. "Over the last three weeks, decisions have been made in Havana that seriously undermine the momentum of efforts toward normalization of U.S.-Cuban relations," said Representative William Delahunt (D-Mass.) on Apr. 8, when he voted to condemn the crackdown. Delahunt heads a bipartisan group of legislators that has worked to ease restrictions on Cuba.
In Washington, the reversal of any opening has already started. On Mar. 24, the Treasury Dept. announced new curbs on travel to Cuba by American executives and academics. The next casualty could be U.S. food exports to the island, which were expected to approach $200 million this year. "The relationship between the U.S. and Cuba has had its peaks and valleys, but this is a valley below sea level," says John S. Kavulich II, president of U.S.-Cuba Trade & Economic Council Inc., a Cuba monitoring group in New York.
Why is Castro shaking things up? He has managed to outlast most of the world's dictators by alternately tightening and loosening his grip on power. One example: His regime might not have survived the collapse of its top patron, the Soviet Union, had it not moved to experiment with capitalism.
In a similar vein, Castro allowed a political opening over the past two years, partly to win trade concessions from the U.S. and more aid from Europe. Last year, a movement dubbed the Varela Project collected 11,020 signatures on a petition calling for a referendum on political reform. Castro ignored the petition but allowed its chief architect, Oswaldo Payá, to travel to collect the European Union's top human-rights award and meet with world leaders like the Pope. Payá's tour may have convinced Castro that he had allowed the dissidents to gain too much stature.
It's unclear whether new roundups will include other prominent dissidents such as Payá and Sánchez, who remain free. "Castro's primary motive is to maintain political control," says Brian Alexander, director of the Cuban Policy Foundation, a Washington think tank. "I haven't seen any evidence that he's concerned with the economic fallout." Yet frustration over Cuba's stagnation has prompted the armed hijackings of two planes and a ferry in recent weeks by Cubans seeking to flee. Like past crackdowns, this one could spur a new exodus of refugees to Florida.
By Geri Smith in Mexico City
GLOBAL WRAPUP
A Breakthrough in Belfast?
Is the peace process in Northern Ireland about to get a new lease on life? Five years after the signing of the Good Friday peace agreement, which ran into trouble last year, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Irish Premier Bertie Ahern are set to unveil their new joint blueprint for peace in Northern Ireland. Their aim is to coax both sides into a deal that will lead to the restoration of power sharing in Belfast between the Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army.
The blueprint lays out plans for police reform and the scaling back of Britain's military presence in Northern Ireland, including cutbacks in troop levels and army installations. The plan would also establish an international monitoring body, with a representative from Britain, the U.S., Northern Ireland, and the Irish Republic.
British government sources are cautiously optimistic that the proposals will lead the IRA to declare an end to more than three decades of hostilities and eventually agree to another round of weapons decommissioning. The power-sharing arrangement collapsed last year amid accusations of IRA spying.
Without IRA concessions, the leader of the Ulster Unionists, David Trimble, will be unable to persuade hard-liners within his own party to return to government with Sinn Fein. Any proposal will have to be submitted to a vote by the Unionists' 860-member ruling council. If all sides agree, elections for the Northern Ireland assembly will be scheduled for the end of May.
By Kerry Capell in London
|
Copyright 2003, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
Printer-Friendly Version
