International Outlook
Edited by Rose Brady
Can This Palestinian Reformer Speed the Search for Peace?
After months of delays, the Bush Administration is finally pushing ahead with its so-called road map for peace in the Middle East. The plan will lay out steps to be taken by both Israel and the Palestinian National Authority that could lead to the creation of a Palestinian state by the end of 2005. No doubt difficult to achieve, the measures encompass everything from Palestinian political reforms and an end to Palestinian violence to a freeze in Jewish settlement building.
Whether the road map has a future will depend heavily on both Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and PNA Chairman Yassir Arafat, of course. But a crucial role is now reserved for another key player on the Palestinian side -- Mahmoud Abbas, recently appointed the first-ever Prime Minister of the PNA. In fact, the U.S. had demanded changes in the Palestinian leadership before pursuing its new peace plan. A 68-year-old lawyer, Abbas is a longtime aide to Arafat, but he has a reputation as a reformer. He has long called on Arafat to share power, and wants a negotiated solution to the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Abbas participated in secret talks leading to the now-defunct Oslo peace accords in 1993.
Abbas, who has until the end of April to form his Cabinet, is taking on what may be the most thankless job in the region. To be treated seriously by the U.S. and Israel, he will have to exercise real power, not just follow Arafat's bidding. That won't be easy, since the new structure of government approved by the Palestinian Legislative Council allows Arafat to have final say on negotiations with lsrael -- and to keep a largely symbolic post of commander of the Palestinian security forces. Abbas' job will be made even more difficult by the war on Iraq, which has caused anti-Americanism to soar.
The new Prime Minister does have some cards to play. Abbas is one of the few senior Palestinians untainted by corruption charges, and that appeals to his people. "Our public must feel serious change in the new government, with the replacing of ministers who are linked to corruption," says Qadoura Fares, a reformist member of the council. And Abbas has demanded control over day-to-day governmental operations -- a big change from the past, when Arafat ran everything. Notes a Bush Administration official: "Our understanding is that we're going to have a new leadership overseeing security, financing, and negotiations."
Security issues are the pivotal test. Abbas is working feverishly to get the extremist Hamas and Islamic Jihad to give up their violent tactics. So far, the factions have resisted. "If they continue attacks against Israel and fail to heed the authority of the new government, [Abbas] may be forced to crack down," predicts Riad Malki, an independent political analyst in Ramallah. Abbas' choice of Interior Minister could be critical. A leading candidate is Mohammed Dahlan, the tough former security chief in Gaza who resigned after a dispute with Arafat over reining in extremist violence.
Up to now, Israel has made it clear that it won't return to the negotiating table unless violence declines sharply. "It remains to be seen to what extent [Abbas] can act and if Arafat will permit him to fight against the terrorism," Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said on Mar. 29. But not all the pressure will be on Abbas. The U.S. is expected to demand that Israel dismantle illegal outposts in the occupied West Bank, lift curfews, and ease the flow of people and goods through checkpoints.
Is the road map the start of another peace plan leading nowhere? It could be. But Abbas' appointment is a sign that the Palestinians want to find a way out of the impasse that has stymied them -- and the Israelis -- since September, 2000.
By Neal Sandler in Jerusalem, with Stan Crock in Washington
GLOBAL WRAPUP
Financial Scandal in Chile
The resignation of respected Chilean Central Bank President Carlos Massad on Mar. 31 over an information-leaking scheme organized by his secretary is unlikely to affect Chile's economic stability, but the scandal is an embarrassment for President Ricardo Lagos. Chile, the only investment-grade South American country, has a two-decade-long record of solid free-market policies. Massad, a leading economist who had just been reappointed to a second six-year term as head of the independent monetary authority, is credited with helping Chile weather turbulence caused by economic distress in Argentina and Brazil. Chile has kept inflation to around 3% in spite of high world oil prices. Massad, who discovered and reported the leak himself in January, is not being charged with wrongdoing.
Lagos is considering a list of conservative economists from which to nominate a new bank president by May 1 for Senate approval. Massad's departure should have little effect on Chile's finances. Any fluctuation in the peso, which slipped some 8% last year, would be due more to volatile oil prices and the Iraqi war's effect on world markets.
Chilean regulators continue investigating the scandal, in which Massad's secretary shared confidential data with the head of now-shuttered brokerage Inverlink Corredores de Bolsa. Both were charged with white-collar crimes, and top Inverlink executives have been accused of bribing government officials and stealing $100 million in government securities.
By Geri Smith in Mexico City
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Copyright 2003, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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