Washington Outlook
How Far Will the Peace Train Carry Howard Dean?
President Bush isn't the only politician to see his support soar since the invasion of Iraq. One of the biggest beneficiaries of Bush's bellicosity is the most visible Democratic critic of the war against Saddam Hussein, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean.
The antiwar anger that has energized the party's liberal base has helped propel Dean from long shot to White House contender. Dean isn't yet a household name, but he has momentum in key states early in the nomination process as Democrats begin to focus on the candidates. A Mar. 16-19 American Research Group poll of voters in New Hampshire, home to the first-in-the-nation Presidential primary on Jan. 27, 2004, showed the neighboring-state pol surging from single digits into a first-place tie with Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry.
How did a mild-mannered, 54-year-old doctor position himself as a leader of the antiwar movement? For one thing, the war allows him to differentiate himself from the Washington insiders in the Presidential field -- including Kerry, Connecticut Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, and Missouri Representative Richard A. Gephardt, all of whom voted to give Bush the authority to attack Iraq. "We're not going to win this election by being Bush Lite," says former Democratic National Committee Chairman Steve Grossman, now Dean's top fund-raiser.
But liberal complaints go far deeper than the war. Many Democrats blame Washington insiders and party leaders for failing to articulate an aggressive anti-Bush agenda on issues such as health care and taxes -- and for losing ground in the 2002 elections. Catholic University political scientist John Kenneth White says Dean's ascendancy could mark "a Goldwater moment" for the Democratic Party: "They want somebody who will draw a line with Bush -- a choice, not an echo."
The Dean phenomenon reflects a deep split in a party shut out of power in Washington for the first time in 50 years. While most Democrats support military action against Iraq, 54% of liberal Democrats oppose Bush's decision, according to a Mar. 20-24 Pew Research Center poll. And antiwar sentiment is particularly strong among the activists who are most likely to vote in primary elections, give money to candidates, and volunteer for campaigns. "People are desperate for somebody who stands up for Democratic values in the party," Dean tells BusinessWeek.
A few months ago, it would have seemed farfetched to envision Dean as the fiery leader of what he calls "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." An obscure ex-governor who for years shared a small-town medical practice with his wife, Judith Steinberg, his positions are eclectic. Staunchly liberal on social issues, the New York native approved civil unions between same-sex couples and advocates universal health insurance. But it's hard to stereotype Dean as a McGovernite leftie. His pro-gun record earned him an "A" from the NRA. And as a committed fiscal conservative, he says he'll do what it takes to balance the federal budget -- even if cuts in social programs tick off liberal backers. If they expect a big spender, "they're in for a rude surprise," he promises. But some observers think Dean is in for a rude surprise among swing voters who again view his party as soft on defense. If the war goes well for Bush, "there's a very high risk to the [antiwar] Democrats," says Rice University political scientist Earl Black.
Dean is convinced that he'll be vindicated as Bush's policies drive America further into debt and international isolation. It's a gamble, considering the enormous public support for the Iraq war today. Still, by playing the peace card, Dean has at least earned a spot at the Presidential poker table.
By Richard S. Dunham
On the Record
On Mar. 24, Howard Dean talked with BusinessWeek national political correspondent Richard S. Dunham about his primary election rivals and the man he wants to unseat, George W. Bush.
You have criticized Democratic rivals for voting to authorize force in Iraq and failing to draw distinctions with the President on domestic issues. Why?
Our party has supported the President too much. People are desperate for somebody who stands up for Democratic values in the party.
How do your "Democratic values" differ from President Bush's compassionate conservatism?
This President has moved so far to the right that he's undermining the economic future of our nation and our international prestige. He is not a conservative when it comes to [spending] money. He is not conserving our power.
What do you think of Bush's [proposed] $726 billion tax cut?
Just about everybody on Wall Street knows it's crazy. There's a real [deficit] problem down the line.
Every Senate Democrat running for President voted to pare back the tax package to $350 billion. What would you have done?
I would have voted with [Arizona Republican Senator] John McCain [against any tax cut].
You've said you would use some of that money for universal health insurance. Republicans say you're just another tax-and-spend liberal.
I balanced the budget as governor of Vermont. I cut taxes. I want to balance the [federal] budget.
By Richard S. Dunham
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Copyright 2003, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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