-- Many marketers remain cautious, waiting to see if the economic recovery is for real
-- Still, Hollywood, carmakers, and packaged-goods companies will keep spending
Maybe it was the deal-pushing auto companies, or the movie-pitching studios, or the mudslinging politicians. Whoever kicked it off, the advertising rebound was evident on TVs across the U.S. in autumn 2002. It will continue into this year, with marquee properties such as the Super Bowl looking as vibrant as ever. The uptick has even brought relief to some of the long-suffering advertising vehicles, such as magazines and direct mail. "It's a complete seller's market right now," says Peter Gardiner, partner and chief media officer at agency Deutsch, with clients such as Mitsubishi Motors, Revlon, and Snapple.
The surge late last year helped pull up spending for 2002 as a whole to $237 billion, 2% over 2001. Barring any dampening effect from a war in Iraq, the outlook for this year is for marginally stronger growth. Zenith Optimedia Group, a media-buying agency, is predicting ad sales will grow by 2.3%. Universal McCann, another media buyer, anticipates a 5% uptick, to $249.3 billion. Even the beleaguered Internet should see an end to ad declines and the beginnings of growth. "[Ad spending] is coming back much more quickly than it used to," says consultant Sam Hill, co-founder of Helios Consulting Group.
Such optimism is welcome. On the client side, this tentative recovery restores discipline that was lost during the dot-com advertising boom. Some marketers are trying to differentiate their messages amid the ad clutter by tying their media buys to product-placement deals or promotions. Others are bypassing the media entirely, relying on word-of-mouth marketing efforts. Clients are also more likely to demand real proof that their spending is garnering a return--and they could quickly turn off the spigots if they are displeased. "Has the bleeding stopped?" asks Jon Mandel, co-CEO of ad-buying agency Grey Global Group's MediaCom Worldwide. "Yes, but the wound isn't healing yet."
Copyright 2003, Bloomberg L.P.
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