Washington Outlook
Edited by Lee Walczak
Even If Lott Goes, Damage Has Been Done
Trent Lott could learn a thing or two from Al Gore's graceful exit. Mindful that most Democratic elected officials did not want him to lead the party in 2004, the former Vice-President passed on a rematch with President Bush--thereby clearing the way for a pack of potentially more electable contenders. By contrast, the senator from Mississippi, who hopes to be Majority Leader again in 2003, has opted to put ego above party by seeking to ride out the storm over his pro-segregation musings.
The result is a nightmare for conservatives: Even if Lott bows out, George W. Bush's carefully nurtured image of inclusion could be at risk. What's more, hardliners worry that in the aftermath of an attenuated Lott fade-out, the White House may be tempted to soothe anger in the minority community by making concessions on issues ranging from affirmative action to welfare reform. "The danger is that the Administration will be more reluctant to take principled stances," frets Roger Clegg, general counsel of the Center for Equal Opportunity, a group opposed to racial preferences.
He may have reason to worry. Before the Lott debacle, the Justice Dept. was poised to support a Supreme Court case that challenges the University of Michigan's race-conscious admissions process. Now, some White House aides are urging caution. They fear that the high-profile suit could fan perceptions that the GOP is hostile to minority concerns.
Republicans also acknowledge that plans to appoint conservative judges to the federal bench could be set back amid heightened concerns over candidates' civil-rights records. For starters, Bush will be under pressure to scuttle the planned renomination of Mississippi judge Charles W. Pickering to a federal appeals court slot. Pickering is opposed by minority activists for, among other things, trying to reduce the sentence of a convicted cross-burner.
When it comes to the final haggling with Senate Democrats over the shape of a 2003 economic package, Bush could also be forced to make more concessions to the Left. For instance, calls to hike the minimum wage may get a more serious look. And Democrats will try to use the controversy to wring out additional funds for Head Start, welfare, and other safety-net programs.
Despite the potential harm to the GOP agenda, thus far the political damage appears to be limited. A Dec. 12-15 ABC News Poll found that by 60% to 36%, Americans say the GOP is committed to equal opportunity for minorities. By publicly chastising Lott, Bush has managed to avoid personally being dragged into the flap. "Trent Lott's gaffe gave Bush the opportunity to slap him down," says David Bositis, a senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political & Economic Studies, a think tank devoted to minority issues. "That made Bush look better."
But all bets are off if the Lott saga drags on into January, when the President hopes to present his new policy agenda. It's not so much that Bush has an opportunity to raise his level of African American support, which was a puny 9% in 2000. If the controversy weakens the appeal of "compassionate conservatism" with swing voters, the GOP's lucky streak at the polls could be at risk. Indeed, the "Republicans' mood has gone from a [post-election] celebration to a funeral overnight," says Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida. That probably won't change until Lott learns a basic rule of political life that Gore obviously understands: You've got to know when to fold 'em.
By Richard S. Dunham and Alexandra Starr
CAPITAL WRAPUP
Mr. and Mrs. Juice
When Vice-President Dick Cheney named Catherine Martin to replace Mary Matalin as his chief spokeswoman on Dec. 13 he made it official: Washington has a new power couple.
Cathie Martin, 34, is married to Kevin Martin, 36, one of five members of the Federal Communications Commission. They met at Harvard Law School--both are class of '93--and despite having been in Washington only a few years, have rocketed to the upper echelons of the capital power structure. Cathie gained Cheney's confidence while accompanying him on political trips before the midterm elections, and Kevin helped vanquish Al Gore in the Florida recount battle.
After a brief stint as deputy chief of staff and White House liaison for Commerce Secretary Donald Evans, Cathie Martin served as Matalin's No. 2 for the past 18 months. Before that, the University of Texas grad worked for former Texas Attorney General (now Senator-elect) John Cornyn.
Kevin Martin earned his spurs by being on the first flight to Florida from Austin the day after the contested 2000 election. As deputy general counsel to the Bush campaign, he oversaw the legal team working behind the scenes with the Dade and Broward County canvassing boards. His connections came in handy: He had clerked for U.S. District Court Judge William Hoeveler in Miami.
Now, Kevin Martin could hold the balance of power at the FCC, where he may be a swing vote in such crucial issues as deregulation of the Baby Bells.
By Paula Dwyer and Catherine Yang
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Copyright 2002, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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