Washington Outlook
A Stalled Economy Is Widening the Gender Gap
Pols love to talk about America's red zone-blue zone split--polarized regions commanded by Republicans and Democrats, respectively. But to find the biggest partisan division, you need look no farther than the dining-room table. As uncertainty over the economy grows, men are increasingly turning to pro-growth Republicans while women find solace in Democratic appeals for a stronger social safety net. Forget the gender gap--this divide is fast becoming a gender chasm.
The differences--most extreme among young and old voters--pose special problems for the growing ranks of women seeking office. Female Dems must overcome occasional sexism, and GOP women must persuade some female voters not to reject them because of their party.
Examples abound in the battle for Congress. In New Hampshire, Democratic Senate nominee Jeanne Shaheen has a 14-point lead over Republican John E. Sununu, according to an American Research Group poll. But that is offset by his 56%-40% edge among men. And in suburban Baltimore, Republican House candidate Helen Delich Bentley is trailing in a GOP district despite a seven-point lead among men. The reason: Women favor Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger, 49%-38%, according to a Gonzales/Arscott poll.
While the overall rise in the gender gap is modest, it has ballooned among certain groups--such as sixtysomethings and those under 30. In both cases, men are trending Republican, and women are becoming Democratic loyalists, according to the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. Indeed, men 60 to 69 are the most Republican of all age groups, favoring GOP candidates, 51% to 35%. Their female peers lean Democratic, 45% to 39%.
The split has also grown among college-educated and Southern women: They've moved toward the Dems as their husbands remain with the GOP. "The gender gap is as much a political reality in a divided America as socioeconomic or regional differences," says Pew Director Andrew Kohut.
Why the divergence? In an uncertain economy, women--particularly the elderly and young workers--are more nervous about the future. And women are more likely to reject Republican social conservatism. But where gender chasms have emerged, the common thread is "a dramatically different perception of the role of government and the need for a social safety net," says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
While the trend has helped Dems, it's increasingly a drag on various blocs of male voters. Of particular concern: Hispanic men. President George W. Bush's relentless outreach has cut the Dems' advantage among Latino men to 10 points, Pew found, but women remain staunchly Democratic. The GOP also has a big edge among Catholic men of European descent; Catholic females lean Democratic.
"Male trouble" has complicated the gubernatorial races of seven female Dems. With 45 states in budget crises, says Lake, "men are having doubts that...[women] can handle the job." Candidates who fare best have no-nonsense reps, such as Attorneys General Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Jennifer Granholm of Michigan.
Once, political pros dismissed the gender gap as a one-time reaction to Ronald Reagan. No more. With the midterm elections so close, control of Congress--and the fate of a handful of female candidates--could be decided in the trenches between men and women.
By Richard S. Dunham
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By Richard S. Dunham
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Copyright 2002, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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