Chávez out!" That cry is growing louder by the day in Venezuela, where citizens are taking to the streets to protest against President Hugo Chávez. The former paratrooper has seen his approval rating plunge from 80% in 1999 to 24% today, as citizens have grown dissatisfied with his inability to improve their living standards. Even some in the military are giving Chávez a thumbs-down. On Feb. 6, Air Force Colonel Pedro Soto and National Guard Captain Pedro Flores marched with protesters to Chávez' home and called on him to resign. A military commission is deciding whether to discharge the officers.
Chávez is feeling the heat. Indeed, in a speech to the nation on Feb. 12, he offered an olive branch to his critics. "The opposition has to be constructive. I'm ready to revise whatever there is to revise," he vowed. Chávez also took a drastic step to curb capital flight and slash Venezuela's yawning budget deficit by allowing the currency, the bolivar, to float freely. The bolivar's value against the dollar plunged 20% on Feb. 13.
But even these steps are unlikely to prevent Venezuela, the world's No. 4 oil exporter and the No. 3 U.S. oil supplier, from escaping a period of political instability. The emboldened opposition is openly discussing ways to oust the President. Most experts rule out a coup, even though Soto claims most of the armed forces agree that Chávez should resign. Instead, opposition leaders and political experts believe that the military would back a constitutional effort to force Chávez out.
Initial moves against the President are under way. In early February, the opposition Democratic Action Party filed a motion with the Supreme Court challenging Chávez' mental competence. That's taking a page from Ecuador's book, where in 1997, Congress ousted President Abdalá Bucaram on grounds of insanity. Opposition members say they are collecting psychiatric evaluations of Chávez, who is known for mood swings. The opposition may also charge Chávez with misusing defense funds for social projects, such as employing troops to sell subsidized food. Such an approach worked in 1994, when Venezuela's Congress impeached President Carlos Andrés Pérez for misuse of funds. Since Chávez' Fifth Republic Movement leads the National Assembly by just one vote, the opposition sees a chance to impeach him. Opposition strategists also think moderate Supreme Court justices will withdraw support from Chávez as protests mount. The court has yet to rule on the insanity motion.
Meanwhile, the business community is lining up against Chávez. Business is appalled by a package of 49 economic laws that Chávez imposed by decree in November. They vastly increase state intervention in industries such as oil and fishing. To show their dismay, 80% of Venezuela's businesses shut down for a one-day "civic strike" on Dec. 10. "We don't like playing the role of the political opposition, but we're fighting for our very existence," says Luis H. Ball, president of medical-supplies maker Eurociencia and former president of industrial association Conindustria. Key figures in the Roman Catholic Church, trade unions, and media may also back an effort to topple Chávez, who has blasted them with vitriolic rhetoric.
If Chávez goes, who will take over? One suggestion in Caracas political circles is to have a civilian junta made up of representatives of business, labor, and opposition parties rule until new elections can be held. Among those likely to contest the presidency would be Caracas Mayor Alfredo Peña and National Assembly Deputy Julio Borges, both center-right leaders. But Chávez won't step down without a fight. Venezuelans are bracing for a turbulent year.
By Christina Hoag in Caracas
Edited by Rose Brady
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