On paper, Europe is a potential world power second to none. A population of 379 million educated, prosperous citizens. A territory that in a few years will share an extended border with Russia. World-class companies like Nokia, Vivendi, and Siemens that operate worldwide.
So why does the EU look like such a geopolitical weakling? Europe's underfinanced armies strain even to take part in Afghanistan peacekeeping, never mind the real fighting. Economic growth is at a crawl. But even if the euro zone were prospering, it's not clear its leaders would spend the billions needed to equip a U.S.-caliber defense force. The upshot? The U.S. can fight the war on terror pretty much as it likes. "Europe is no longer an important factor in world security," says a former U.S. diplomat. "September 11 erased all doubt about that."
Change could be coming. The European Union will add as many as 64 million members by 2004 as it accepts countries such as Poland and Hungary. That is focusing thinking as never before on how to make Europe's creaky institutions function better. "With the euro, we've accomplished a completely integrated monetary zone," says Daniel Bouton, chairman of French banking giant Societe Generale. "But now the next step has to be more political union, since the current system isn't functioning." The EU needs a parliament with real power and an executive able to act. Currently, the consensus-based system stymies reform on everything from farm subsidies to takeover rules.
Arguably, the multilingual Europeans are better-equipped than Americans to build bridges between cultures and to ease tension with Islam. To translate its strengths into preeminence, though, Europe still needs a true identity. The euro is a start. But the day when Europe can match the U.S.--and improve its standing on the geopolitical stage compared to up-and-comers like China--is decades away.
By Jack Ewing in Frankfurt, with John Rossant in Paris
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