International Outlook
EDITED BY ROSE BRADY
Now, Will India and Pakistan Get Serious About Peace?
For days, the tension mounted. After terrorists attacked India's Parliament on Dec. 13 and India accused Pakistan of harboring groups suspected of staging the assault, troops massed on both sides of the border separating the world's two newest nuclear powers. Yet, by the start of the New Year, it looked as if conflict might be prevented after all.
Bowing to fierce diplomatic pressure from the U.S. and Britain, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has begun cracking down on Pakistan-based groups blamed for the attacks--Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, which operate in the disputed Himalayan state of Kashmir that both India and Pakistan claim. He arrested 150 militants and detained key leaders. Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee still wants Musharraf to close all terrorist camps on his territory and hand over 20 terrorist suspects. And the most skeptical Indians still fear the arrests in Pakistan will prove to be more political theatre than a serious crackdown. Even so, Vajpayee held out an olive branch on Jan. 1, declaring a willingness to "walk more than half the distance with Pakistan to resolve through dialogue any issue."
Now, from Washington to London to Beijing, political leaders are hoping not only that the two countries avoid war but also that they will take their first serious steps in years toward solving the key problem that divides them--Kashmir. The struggle to wrest the region from India's control has lasted decades and cost tens of thousands of lives. What's needed now, explains Stephen P. Cohen, an expert on South Asia at the Brookings Institution in Washington, is "a face-saving device that will make it possible for both sides to declare victory." It's unclear how deeply Washington wants to get involved. But President George W. Bush phoned both Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee just before the New Year. British Prime Minister Tony Blair is also planning a peace mission to Islamabad and New Delhi. U.S. ambassadors to both India and Pakistan will likely work actively behind the scenes to push a solution in Kashmir, Cohen predicts. U.S. ambassador to India Robert D. Blackwill was a close Bush foreign policy adviser during his election campaign.
One key to a longer-term solution could be state elections planned for the India-administered part of Kashmir this summer. In the past, India has rigged the elections to keep a New Delhi-friendly government in power. This time, with international attention focused on South Asia, New Delhi could feel pressure to allow free and fair elections in Kashmir.
That would be a step toward easing tensions as well as granting more autonomy for the Himalayan state, especially if Musharraf gives an O.K. for Kashmiri separatist groups to take part in the ballot. Amitabh Mattoo, a member of India's National Security Advisory Board and a professor of international studies at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, is advising New Delhi to allow free elections and then open talks with Pakistan on Kashmir's future. Mattoo suggests both countries grant autonomy to their sectors of Kashmir, turning the line of control separating them into a border that Kashmiris could cross without visas.
Would Musharraf buy such a compromise? He can't appear to be giving up Pakistan's 50-year-old claim on Kashmir without fearing a backlash from his military. Musharraf has already taken heat for reversing his policy of supporting the Taliban. Nevertheless, he has done better than expected in holding his country together since the war in Afghanistan began. If conflict between India and Pakistan can be avoided, Musharraf may surprise once again.
By Manjeet Kripalani in Bombay, with Naween Mangi in Karachi, Frederik Balfour in Hong Kong, and Paul Magnusson in Washington
GLOBAL WRAPUP
A Rough Start in Poland
Just a few months after winning power in Poland's Nov. 23 parliamentary elections, the ex-communist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) government is watching its popularity plummet as economic troubles mount. Unemployment has jumped to almost 3 million, or 16.8% of the workforce, and is expected to exceed 18% in 2002. Meanwhile, economic growth for 2001 lagged at just 1.5%.
That contrasts sharply with new Prime Minister Leszek Miller's promises of a dynamic economy and the creation of 1.5 million new jobs. According to a recent survey by the Warsaw-based Public Opinion Research Center, 67% of Poles say the country is heading in the wrong direction. "Never [since the end of communism in 1989] has our economy been in such bad shape," says Henryk Wilk, vice-president of the Polish Confederation of Private Employers.
Miller is losing popularity partly because he is taking tough actions needed to get Poland's government budget under control. The Prime Minister has ordered all his ministers to cut spending to get the 2002 deficit down to $10 billion, or 5.2% of GDP. That's still above the 2001 deficit of 3.4% of GDP. The government has frozen wages in the state sector, cancelled promised pay increases for teachers, and slashed spending on the army and police.
Budget austerity may also strain the SLD's coalition with the Peasant Party (PSL), which wants more funds for the agricultural sector. With such troubles mounting, it may be tough for Miller to last a full four-year term.
By Bogdan Turek in Warsaw
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Copyright 2002 , by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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