Washington Outlook
Edited by Richard S. Dunham
Wartime Politics: The Downside for Democrats
On Sept. 10, Democrats were excited about their chances of sweeping Congress in 2002. They were lining up a sterling cast of recruits, and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.)was pounding out a popular agenda that included education, health care, and that Old Reliable of Democratic issues, Social Security. But that was then.
Now Democrats have temporarily lost Social Security as an issue, and a number of their best recruits are going AWOL. Meantime, Republicans have the upper hand on the top issues of the moment: defense, foreign policy, and law enforcement. Indeed, an Oct. 5-6 Gallup Poll gives the GOP a 56% to 21% edge over Democrats when it comes to handling America's No. 1 concern: terrorism.
In the all-important candidate-recruitment game, several GOP incumbents who had been expected to retire--including Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and Kansas Representative Jerry Moran--instead have announced plans to seek reelection. Now, Thompson and Moran are prohibitive favorites.
PATRIOTIC RETREATS. The dismal news for the Dems doesn't stop there. In Oregon, Governor John A. Kitzhaber, who had been leading GOP Senator Gordon H. Smith in the polls, opted out of the race. Two other top Democratic prospects--retired three-star General Claudia J. Kennedy of Virginia and former Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman of Kansas--bowed out, saying the war against terrorism played a role in their decisions. Kennedy didn't feel comfortable raising campaign funds amid a military crisis, and Glickman saw his chances of winning in a Republican state cut substantially. In Florida, former ambassador Pete Peterson, a POW during Vietnam, said the need for national unity led him to drop his bid for the Democratic nomination for governor. On the plus side, the crisis atmosphere helped propel Erskine B. Bowles, a respected Charlotte venture capitalist and former Chief of Staff to President Clinton, into a possible matchup with Elizabeth Dole for the Senate seat being vacated by Jesse Helms (R-N.C.).
The new realities have prompted both parties to shift strategies. Now there's a premium on candidates with military or foreign policy experience. That's why the Dems' loss of Kennedy--once the highest-ranking woman in the military--was so disheartening. Still on the wish list: Arkansas Democrats are hoping to persuade retired General K. Wesley Clark, the former NATO commander, to run for governor in 2002.
Dems are left hoping a crisis atmosphere isn't necessarily a boon to the party in the White House. In 1942, for example, the GOP won 55 Democratic House seats and 9 Senate spots 11 months after Pearl Harbor. And it made strides after World War II by recruiting vets such as Richard M. Nixon to do battle with communism. Its last effort to woo ex-soldiers--when Newt Gingrich tried to enlist 80 Desert Storm and Vietnam vets after the victory over Iraq--fizzled as gusto for war shifted to recession anxiety. Concedes Senator Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa): "I'm not sure terrorism helps the Republicans as much as anticommunism."
Democrats are clinging to other glimmers of hope, too. Despite the President's popularity topping 80%, the Gallup Poll gave the GOP just a one-point edge when voters were asked which party they'd like to see control Congress. To turn things around, Dems are counting on voters shifting attention from war to recession. That could still happen. But without compelling new candidates, Democratic hopes now seem more likely to be dashed.
By Lorraine Woellert
CAPITAL WRAPUP
Rudy for the CIA?
There's no vacancy yet, but one name is being talked about as a successor to CIA Director George J. Tenet: New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. If anyone is held accountable for the intelligence failure that permitted the September 11 terrorist attacks, Tenet is a likely fall guy. The White House's choice of the hard-charging Giuliani, a former prosecutor whose term ends in January, would send a clear message: America is determined to nail the culprits behind the attacks.
CAPITAL WRAPUP
Good News, Bad News
The number of Americans without health insurance has dropped from 39.3 million in 1999 to 38.7 million in 2000, says the Census Bureau. Unfortunately, nobody expects the trend to last. With the economy slowing and health-care costs soaring, the ranks of the uninsured will swell again, says the Health Insurance Assn. S. Jackson Faris, president of the National Federation of Independent Business, says the situation is "like looking at photos from a party that's been over for months."
CAPITAL WRAPUP
Liberal Landslide
Is the Democratic Party continuing its move toward the center begun during the Clinton years? Don't count on it. Liberals won a big battle on Oct. 10 when California Representative Nancy Pelosi easily defeated moderate Steny Hoyer of Maryland for the No. 2 Dem House leadership spot. Pelosi replaces House Minority Whip David Bonior, who will run for governor of Michigan. Pelosi, a vocal critic of tax cuts and trade liberalization, will be the highest-ranking woman in Congress.
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Copyright 2001, Bloomberg L.P.
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