When the German government celebrated completion of the new Chancellor's Office in Berlin on Sept. 1, musical entertainment came from five dancing and singing women, average age 22, known as No Angels. The group, currently the nation's most popular pop act, might as well be called No Germans. Although most were born in Germany, ethnically their roots lie in places like Peru, Morocco, and Bulgaria, with just one blue-eyed Nordic blonde among them.
A policy statement? It could have been. Germany looks on the verge of passing a law that will for the first time allow selective immigration, especially for those with sought-after skills in areas like math and science. The proposal by Interior Minister Otto Schily faces criticism from both left and right, but all the major parties agree on the need to encourage orderly immigration. Putting out the welcome mat represents a 180-degree policy turn for Germany, which has long denied being an immigrant nation, even though loopholes have let in "guest workers" and political refugees. Those waves of Auslander have pushed the foreign-born population to 9%. In cities like Frankfurt, 28% of residents are foreign born.
Now, Germany seems ready to institutionalize what has long been fact. Schily's proposal would create an orderly system for accepting foreigners and integrating them into society. Foreigners with the most education and skills would be welcomed, offered instruction in the German language and local customs, and given expedited treatment from the bureaucracy. Most important, mathematicians and other highly qualified foreigners would be eligible for permanent residency immediately. "The country needs to offer scientists a secure future," says Manh Ha Duong, a 28-year-old Vietnam native who came to Germany as a student and now helps prepare forecasts for the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin.
Anti-foreigner sentiment has long been a favorite campaign theme of Germany's center-right Christian Democratic Union. The party used it to win control of Parliament in the state of Hesse in 1999. Yet now, economic pragmatism seems to be gaining the upper hand. While the CDU objects to some provisions of the proposed immigration law, a compromise is likely. "I'm surprised," says Hans-Olaf Henkel, former CEO of IBM Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and a member of the government's Immigration Commission. That "was unthinkable two years ago."
The shift in attitude is part of a continental trend. Even as European countries like Britain and Spain step up attempts to shut out illegal immigrants from poor lands, they are welcoming foreigners with desirable skills. No huddled masses, please. But give us your scientists, your engineers, your computer programmers yearning to write code. "It's clear that we don't have enough chemistry or machinery graduates," says Thomas Schoeneberg, chief of personnel at Frankfurt-based chemical company Degussa.
While Germany debates its proposed immigration law, Britain and France are already issuing more residency permits to skilled foreigners. Ireland, with unemployment below 4%, plans to import 200,000 workers over the next five years. Government recruiters have held job fairs in New Zealand and India. "Until recently immigration just wasn't a feature in Ireland, but with the huge growth in the economy and subsequent skills shortage it became a more pressing issue," says Jackie Harrison, director of social policy for the Irish Business and Employers Confederation.
The economic argument is compelling. European population growth is slowing, and the average age is rising. The demographics are most ominous in Germany. At current birth rates, Germany's population will fall to 60 million by 2050 from 82 million today. The workforce will shrink to 26 million from 41 million. Without enough young working people, the pension system will collapse. Moreover, the war for talent is now global. Germany's current policy, which officially welcomes only those of German ancestry, has already put the country behind the U.S. and Canada in attracting the world's best minds.
Not that Germany lacks foreigners. During the "Economic Wonder" years of the 1950s and 1960s, the government allowed immigrants to man the assembly lines of companies like Volkswagen. The largest group were Turks, who started arriving in the 1960s. These guest workers were supposed to return home, but Germany never seriously pressured them. Many stayed and raised families, and now Germany's 2 million-plus Turks are the largest foreign ethnic group. Germany also accepted some 345,000 Bosnian refugees during the height of the ethnic conflict in the former Yugoslavia.
But now Germany wants skilled workers for good-paying jobs. That seems illogical when Germany has 3.8 million unemployed people, and the unemployment rate in the euro zone is 8.3%. Yet in Germany and other EU countries many people are profoundly reluctant to relocate. Generous jobless benefits, which in the first year pay people two-thirds of their previous salary, reduce the pressure. Andy Zynga, Frankfurt-based group director for Vanco, a British provider of telecom network services, remembers trying to recruit a salesperson in Hamburg who was about to lose his current job. "He canceled the interview because he wasn't willing to move from Hamburg," recalls Zynga.
LOCAL FRICTION. Italy has a similar problem. Unemployment in the south reaches as high as 20%, but it dips as low as 5% in parts of industrial northern Italy, creating a shortage of skilled workers. Marco Trapani, 37, a Sicilian-born truck driver, has been unemployed for six years. He was the only applicant to respond to a shipping company's want ad, offering $2,000 per month, free housing, and relocation assistance to Brescia, which lies between Milan and Verona. "I went up to Brescia to check it out, and I felt more out of place than the African immigrant next to me on the train," says Trapani.
If Germany does pass its new law, the pressure to open the doors even further will increase. But the Christian Democrats want tougher measures to prevent people from using political asylum to gain entry. And they want assurances that Germany isn't opening the floodgates. Meanwhile, the Greens, coalition partners with Chancellor Gerhard Schroder's Social Democrats, consider the proposed law inhumane because it bars immigrants from bringing in children over 12.
Despite the bickering, reform is likely sooner rather than later. Interior Minister Schily vows to pass a law before the end of the year. All major parties agree that the country needs foreigners. "I'm all for it. It's more necessary than it has ever been," says Herbert Mai, director of personnel at the Frankfurt Airport and former head of the union that represents Germany's public service workers. An increasing number of Germans agree.
By Jack Ewing in Frankfurt, with Kate Carlisle in Rome, Kerry Capell in London, and bureau reports
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