International Outlook
Edited by Rose Brady
Taiwan: Why Chen May Build New Bridges to China
His presidency has been little short of disastrous. Since his election in May, 2000, Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian has presided over the island's worst economic crisis in decades. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party has stymied his key initiatives in the Taiwan legislature. And Beijing has steadfastly ignored his gestures toward reopening cross-strait talks, which have been stalled since 1998, while pointing increasing numbers of missiles at the island.
Now, Chen, 50, is making a near-desperate bid to turn his political fortunes around before key legislative elections in December. His Democratic Progressive Party controls only 77 seats in the 225-seat legislature and will be lucky to maintain that position--especially given widespread discontent with the economy. Taiwan's gross domestic product is expected to contract this year for the first time in 49 years, and unemployment is rising. So, in an important move, the pro-independence Chen promised on Aug. 27 to heed the recommendations of a blue-ribbon panel and push for expanded travel, trade, and investment ties with the Chinese mainland. The proposals are meant to boost the economy and appease Taiwanese who want closer relations with the mainland. Taiwanese companies figure their only chance for growth is to turn to the mainland's cheap production base and grab a larger chunk of the mainland's giant market.
FIRST STEP. If the proposals go ahead, they would represent the biggest change in cross-strait relations since Taiwan adopted the "go slow, be patient" policy toward economic contacts with China in 1996. Yet Chen is caught between the hard-line pro-independence stance of his DPP and a recalcitrant leadership in China. Beijing has refused to negotiate with Chen unless he endorses the One China policy that states that Taiwan is part of China. Chen's only choice is to steer a narrow course through these shoals. He seems intent on boosting ties with the mainland step by step, but he's likely to stop short of embracing the One China policy. "Chen is showing more pragmatism," says Philip Yang, associate professor of political science at National Taiwan University.
As a first step, Chen is likely to lift the $50 million cap on investments allowed by Taiwanese companies on the mainland. That is sure to please Taiwan business, which has quietly invested an estimated $60 billion in China over the past decade. Chen will also make it easier for mainlanders to get visas to travel to Taiwan. But if Beijing continues to refuse to negotiate with Chen on direct air, shipping, and postal links, there's not much more he can do unilaterally to boost ties.
The embattled President hasn't given up. He's trying to use the economic panel to break the legislative gridlock that has held him back since his election. Chen assembled the committee himself, inviting representatives from government, academia, business, and opposition parties to take part. That's an effort to ensure a broad base of support as he moves forward with the panel's proposals. Chen also wants to boost the DPP's power base in the legislature after the December elections by teaming up with members of opposition parties. One party eager to work with him is the new Taiwan Solidarity Union, founded by KMT defectors and backed by former President Lee Teng-hui. But Chen must be wary of aligning himself with the adamantly pro-independence Lee, for fear of incensing Beijing.
Does Chen have a real chance of turning his presidency around? His popularity rating shot from 30% to 45% after he agreed to the economic panel's proposals in late August. But Chen still faces a political minefield in dealing with Beijing and his domestic rivals. It is going to be a long, hard three years until he faces reelection.
By Frederik Balfour in Hong Kong
GLOBAL WRAPUP
Solidarity: On the Way Out?
The embarrassing ouster of Finance Minister Jaroslaw Bauc on Aug. 28 couldn't have come at a worse time for Poland's unpopular Solidarity government. It shows that Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek's Cabinet is in total disarray just 3 1/2 weeks before the general election on Sept. 23. Buzek says he sacked Bauc, a nonparty technocrat, for failing to warn him early enough that Poland is on the brink of a budget crisis. Political analysts in Warsaw say Bauc's dismissal will give the opposition Socialists, who were already expected to trounce Solidarity in the poll, plenty of ammunition to lob at the government as campaigning reaches its peak. It's now virtually certain that the Socialists will lead the next government, they say.
GLOBAL WRAPUP
Spain Cracks Down
A growing flood of economic refugees is undermining Spain's relations with Morocco--and creating tensions along Europe's southern border. In late August, Spanish police, working under a tight new immigration law, rounded up more than 1,000 Moroccan immigrants along the Spanish coast. At least 20 others drowned in August trying to cross the Strait of Gibraltar in rickety boats.
Angered by Madrid's tough new line, the Moroccan government has revoked a fishing agreement. Spain has cut back aid to Morocco. As the governments exchange recriminations, tensions mount. Moroccan shoppers in Spain's north African outpost of Ceuta threw bottles and rocks at Spanish police on Aug. 28. The police dispersed the crowd by unleashing smoke bombs.
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Copyright 2001 , by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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