Washington Outlook
Bush's Accidental, Unprepared, Hugely Successful First 100 Days
George W. Bush began his day on May 1 by delivering an address that made a cogent argument for his Star Wars antimissile shield--a plan foes deride as laser-powered pie in the sky. Then he called a Rose Garden press conference to revel in the "bad news" that Hill Republicans would fund only $1.25 trillion of his $1.6 trillion tax cut. That's 25% less than the Prez wanted, pundits were quick to note. But if Bush is on a losing streak, Democrats had better brace for four years of political irrelevancy. The emerging reality of the Bush Presidency is this: A leader who took office with few obvious political credits is beating expectations time and again.
Consider taxes. Because Bush held firm, the plan that the Senate Finance Committee hopes to complete within a week will be close to his blueprint. A new 10% bottom rate will be created to help the working poor. The child-care credit will be doubled. There will be relief for two-earner married couples. And the top rate will be slashed, not to Bush's preferred 33%, but to the 35% range (vs. 39.6% now).
SINGULAR TRIUMPH. The major changes to Bush's script: Plans to kill the inheritance tax may be deferred, and the White House will accept a Hill initiative to add $100 billion in immediate tax relief. "Yesterday, people were debating whether there would or should be any tax relief at all," says Budget Director Mitch Daniels. "Now we're...splitting hairs."
The tax fight represents a singular triumph for a supposedly hobbled President. It was accomplished with a combination of cunning, charm, message discipline, and the occasional karate chop. "Bush got 75% of what he wanted," says John J. Pitney Jr., a Claremont McKenna College political scientist. "Given the circumstances under which he came to office, this represents very respectable progress." Adds Dubya's political guru, Karl Rove: "Bush knows when it's time to deal."
The President is also close to a deal on education reform. To hear Democrats tell it, Bush is in retreat, tossing school vouchers, spending restraint, and some of his grand visions for national testing over the side. In reality, when Congress agrees to a school-reform package that pumps billions into literacy programs and gives states new flexibility, the Prez will score another big victory. "Voters are comfy with moderate Republican governors who are good on education," says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. "Even Democrats give him good grades for reaching out on this issue."
Watch for a tougher slog on the rest of Bush's agenda. Vice-President Dick Cheney's national energy plan, to be released soon, is tilted so far toward production incentives that Dems will find it easy to add conservation measures to the package. The Administration's early stance on environmental protection, which seemed hostile and depressed Bush's popularity with independents, won't help. Democrats weren't able to use the class-warfare argument on taxes, but GOP pollster Edward Goeas says they may have more success "painting Bush as a tool of Big Oil" in the energy debate.
What about the defense overhaul Bush keeps promising? Experts say that if the Pentagon kills some big-ticket programs to make room for the $7 billion Bush wants for Star Wars research, he can keep his commitment to the military and still come off as a reformer.
The President's promise to revamp Medicare while helping seniors pay for prescription drugs is more problematic, lawmakers say: Even some Republicans consider his drug plan too puny. Likewise, the economic slump has taken a toll on Bush's push for private Social Security accounts.
On balance, though, Bush's performance, like the economy's surprisingly resilient GDP numbers, continues to beat analyst projections. Democrats keep muttering that the Accidental President will soon be humbled. But thus far, Bush's victories seem anything but accidental.
By Lee Walczak and Richard S. Dunham
CAPITAL WRAPUP
Speedier Generics?
With Congress deadlocked on a prescription drug benefit for seniors, lawmakers are seeking other ways to cut drug costs. On May 1, Senators John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) introduced a bill that would make it harder for drugmakers to keep generics off the market when brand-name patents expire. Schumer figures the bill, which has support from everyone from Ford Motor and the AFL-CIO to hospitals and insurers, could cut drug bills by $71 billion over 10 years.
By Lee Walczak and Richard S. Dunham
CAPITAL WRAPUP
Weakening Securities Rules
Republicans are taking aim at what they consider overly restrictive securities regulations. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Phil Gramm (R-Tex.) wants to revisit an SEC rule, effective last October, designed to prevent selective disclosure of market-sensitive information. He thinks it may slow the flow of info and contribute to market volatility.
By Lee Walczak and Richard S. Dunham
CAPITAL WRAPUP
Retirees Unite!
Fed up with employers slashing retiree health benefits at the same time they're using huge pension surpluses to fatten bottom lines and boost CEO compensation, retirees are fighting back. More than 1.5 million retirees from companies such as Verizon, GE, and General Motors have formed the National Retiree Legislative Network. First order of business: push for a bill prohibiting reduction or curtailment of health benefits after a worker retires.
By Lee Walczak and Richard S. Dunham
|
Copyright 2001 , by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
Printer-Friendly Version
