International Outlook
EDITED BY ROSE BRADY
Can Bush Break the Stalemate with Iraq?
On Feb. 26, Kuwait will celebrate the 10th anniversary of its liberation from the Iraqis. But as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and other dignitaries gather in the oil-rich emirate, their old foe, Saddam Hussein, will be thumbing his nose across the border.
Iraq could soon turn into one of the Bush Administration's most vexing problems. In recent months, Saddam has made more progress in restoring his standing in the world than he has in the past 10 years. Delegations from Arab and international capitals land at Saddam International Airport in Baghdad on an almost daily basis. Iraqi Airways is flying again, and the Iraqis have opened a new oil outlet to neighboring Syria--once their deadly enemy.
The Iraqis are trying to exploit the world's need for their oil in a bid to wrest control over their oil revenues from the United Nations. Under the oil-for-food program begun in 1996, Iraqi oil revenues are paid into U.N.-controlled accounts, which are used for approved imports such as food. In their latest gambit, the Iraqis are demanding that their customers pay a surcharge of up to 50 cents per barrel directly to them instead. Many customers are balking. But that, in turn, is prompting the Iraqis to produce less oil--1.7 million barrels per day in January, compared with 2.6 million last fall. Naturally, the cutback contributes to higher world prices for oil.
ISOLATED. Saddam is making his point. Much of the world now accepts that the U.N. sanctions imposed on Iraq since 1990 should be eased because they are hurting the Iraqi people while doing little to change the regime. Of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, only the U.S. and Britain remain strong advocates of tight controls on Iraqi imports and oil revenues. "The U.S. is isolated on this issue," says Raad Alkadiri, an analyst at Washington energy consultant PFC. Washington should reformulate its Iraq policy before sanctions unravel entirely, he adds.
But there is no quick fix, and the Bush Administration is in the early days of figuring out its policy. One idea under discussion is boosting U.S. support for the Iraqi opposition. In early February, the Treasury Dept. committed $4 million to the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group in London. But Iraqi opposition groups have few armed followers inside Iraq, so they are unlikely to pose a threat. "Their grip on what matters in Iraqi politics is small," says Charles Tripp, an Iraq specialist at University of London's School of Oriental & African Studies.
The smartest thing for Bush & Co. may be to acknowledge that the last 10 years have shown that overthrowing Saddam is difficult, if not impossible. Then they could hash out a more effective policy in consultation with regional allies such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, and Jordan. Under this approach, most sanctions could be lifted with the exception of those aimed at blocking purchases of military equipment. The key is to show the rest of the world that the sanctions are aimed at preventing Saddam from rearming--not punishing the Iraqi people.
Allowing the Iraqis more control over oil revenues might begin to create a constituency in Baghdad for economic development rather than regional troublemaking. That could be a bridge to the era after Saddam, who is 64. But such a major shift in U.S. policy isn't likely early in a new Administration. So there will probably be more disruptions of Iraqi oil supplies while Saddam exploits Arab-Israeli tensions. Already, he has a $10,000 check delivered to the family of each Palestinian killed in the intifada. Doubtless, Saddam has bigger tricks up his sleeve.
By Stanley Reed in London, with Stan Crock in Washington
Election Fever in Poland
It's months until key parliamentary elections in Poland in September, but already the campaign is revving up. The post-communist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) fired the first salvo only days after the ruling minority Solidarity government won approval for its 2001 budget on Feb. 3--heading off early elections. SLD leader Leszek Miller sharply criticized Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek for Poland's slowing economic growth and for rising unemployment. Gross domestic product is expected to rise 4.5% this year, down from more than 5% in 2000, and joblessness tops 15%. Miller has outlined plans to boost spending to spur growth if his party wins the election in September.
An SLD victory is favored. One reason is that voters are tired after four years of reforms under Buzek--from overhauling the educational system and launching private pensions to restructuring local government. Now, he's rushing to ease restrictive laws that make it hard to fire workers. Labor unions oppose the measures, but analysts say Buzek may be able to push them through.
Meanwhile, a new political force is rising in Poland. In late January, leaders of Solidarity and Freedom Union defected from their parties to create Civic Platform, a new center-right group favoring faster reform. Polls show 17% of voters support Civic Platform, vs. 13% for Solidarity and 5% for Freedom Union, while 39% back the leftists. Thus, Civic Platform has a chance to become Poland's leading opposition party, setting the stage for a challenge to the leftists in a few years.
By Bogdan Turek in Warsaw
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Copyright 2001 , by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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