Boeing's Future, Circa June 2001

Posted by: Justin Bachman on October 26, 2011

As the long-delayed 787 Dreamliner finally entered commercial service today in Asia, it’s worth remembering that this was not the jet Boeing initially planned to build. The 787 is sold as a marvel of lightweight carbon-fiber composites, reducing travel’s carbon footprint in a world desperate to minimize fuel consumption. Eleven years ago, however, the fight between Boeing and Airbus played out on a far different terrain.

Boeing was selling speed back in 2001. The company was focused on the 200-passenger Sonic Cruiser, a futurist’s dream, designed to speed along some 20 percent faster than current commercial aircraft, or about 95 percent of the speed of sound. That’s about 650 mph at cruise altitude. Such speed would shave an hour of flight time per every 3,000 miles. The Sonic Cruiser was to have flown 9,000 nautical miles or more. As Boeing said in a 2001 statement from the Paris Air Show: “(P)assengers will be able to fly directly to their destinations, avoiding congested hubs and the delay and inconvenience of intermediate stops.”

The Sonic Cruiser was born from the demise of Boeing’s initial goal of building a new, larger version of the 747 to respond to the rival behemoth from Airbus, the double-decker, 800-plus passenger A380, introduced for sale in late 2000 after years of study and vigorous debate over the economics of such a large plane.

In June 1999 Boeing had explicitly rejected the notion that jets larger than its 747 would have much market appeal. The company’s news release headline? “Boeing Projects Small Market For Airplanes Larger Than 747.” But the pressure to respond to the A380 was keen, and in March 2001 Boeing unveiled the Sonic Cruiser. Boeing also has stretched the 747, and given it a new wing and engines to reduce operating costs. The first 747-8 freighter began cargo service on Oct. 12; Lufthansa receives the first passenger version early next year.

The rival ideas were striking. Airbus envisioned a world where airlines would congregate ever-growing masses among hubs, and respond to congestion and efficiency pressures with bigger jets. There’s evidence for that approach. Asian carriers for years have flown jumbo jets on domestic routes, while players like Emirates and Qatar loudly praise the cost savings big planes can deliver. Boeing portrayed its Sonic Cruiser as a sleek, delta wing derivative that would whisk 200 people among world capitals faster than current technology but far more cost effectively than supersonic flight could achieve. It was a futuristic plane of fuel-efficient engines and lighter materials that did not need a well-tuned airline hub in which to prosper. (Some technical details of the Sonic Cruiser concept can be found in a 2002 paper presented by Martin Hepperle, a German aerospace engineering professor.)

The Sonic Cruiser died a rather sudden death in December 2002. Boeing said that “customer input and market analysis” had rendered the program unfeasible. A month later the 7E7 - what became the 787 - was born and the company began formally selling the jet in December 2003. It is now flying paying customers in Asia and is set to debut in the United States next year with United Continental. If the phrase “what a long, strange journey it’s been” applies, the 787 can certainly claim it.