Posted by: Justin Bachman on April 14
It’s been a remarkable two weeks in the U.S. airline industry. Historic, in fact. On Mar. 31, bankrupt Aloha Airlines stopped flying and dismissed 1,900 employees – the first domino in a stunning wave of bankruptcies. ATA, Skybus, Skyway, Champion Air – all gone. A fifth, Frontier Airlines, is in bankruptcy court, battling with its credit card processor about how to secure a stable cash flow.
This culling of the herd comes against a backdrop of a new rigor from the FAA in terms of airline maintenance and the agency’s relationship with the industry it is charged to police. AMR’s American Airlines had to scrub some 3,300 flights over five days to re-inspect and fix wires in its MD-80 fleet, annoying hundreds of thousands of people and incurring massive customer-service and maintenance bills at a time it can ill afford either.
Oh yeah, amid all this turmoil another monumental event occurred: crude oil breached $112 per barrel on Apr. 9, a stomach-churning milestone for every airline executive. That will most likely serve as Investor’s Exhibit No. 1 when Delta and Northwest roll out their merger announcement, which is expected any time now. The combined behemoth will become the world’s largest airline. With that news – which has been widely reported over the past four days – one can be sure that executives and their bankers at United, Continental and US Airways worked the telephones feverishly this past weekend to suss out what sort of combination they can engineer. Heck, maybe even American had a few people mulling how to respond to this re-ordering of the landscape, bum wiring problems and all.
To a certain extent, these varied aviation news events have no relation to each other. Smaller airlines with weak balance sheets had no buffer against current jet fuel prices, and American’s inspection/repair protocols are merely being updated to accommodate a new tenor at the FAA. Crude oil’s latest surge, to $112.21, came after the government reported an unexpected decline in oil inventories. That’s a function of imports and demand.
In smaller markets, all the recent failure has led some people to conclude that a deregulated airline industry just doesn’t work. As the Honolulu Star Bulletin editorial board put it today, “Rural and remote areas cannot depend on free enterprise to assure adequate service, and congressional hearings should result in a method of addressing the problem.” A worthy goal, certainly, but no one has laid out a plausible scenario that regulated air service would be better for most travelers. In Hawaii, Mesa Airlines’ go! unit and Hawaiian are in tight competition, with inter-island fares of $50 to $250 on most routes. It’s likely that Hawaiians and many others would almost immediately hate any alternative to the current system.
Still, this interesting nexus of major events does bring into stark relief a number of severe failings in our current air travel system, touching on everything from fares to repairs to oversight. Should Skybus have been “selling” seats for $10? Did that make sense for the public or the investors who put money into the venture? And why did the FAA take more than a year to enforce a safety order about MD-80 wire bundles? Did Mesa’s go! set its inter-island fares (some at $1) in a predatory fashion, as Aloha alleged in a lawsuit, and did the Dept. of Transportation ever give the matter a serious review?
All of which points to a bigger question posed last week by a BusinessWeek colleague as we were discussing the reported Delta-Northwest deal: What is U.S. air travel now? As fliers, what should we expect these days with oil above $100? The domestic market is now carved into a broad array of niches between ultra-premium first class and cattle car coach. Is it time to re-evaluate and reset some expectations? The airlines, for their part, are scrambling to wean us from bargain-basement fares and boost revenues. The government is working to reduce congestion delays. Along with weak players, the credit market is squeezing out unprofitable seat capacity, the latest being United’s decision to delay its new service to Guangzhou by more than a year.
I think my friend’s question is one worth pondering. No doubt these years since the 2001 attacks have been trying for every part of aviation. It has changed profoundly, mainly for the worse. This is, after all, an industry that can still thrill and horrify on any given day, be it in sadistically holding passengers hostage aboard jets for hours or whisking us smoothly cross-country for $99 in all of five hours. You never know what you’re going to get when you walk into the terminal. But I think it’s time we all knew what to expect.
Let the market decide who will survive. Very little the government does is productive. We don't need political solutions. We need practical, problem-solving entrepreneurs who understand their industry and its operational requirements coupled with a feel for the value considerations of the flying public. Is Virgin Airways in trouble?
This is first report that we need to go back to a regulated airline industry. It's just a shame that it will come too late to save Aloha, which was one of the finest airlines in the world. I was in the business before and after deregulation. De-reg has never worked-it just keeps creating bankruptcies.
Even if Go! used predatory tactics, please tell me which other airline hasn't?
Aloha would have gone out of business no matter what, and this has been in the making for years. Their prior owner drained the money and didn't both to invest and modernize. It was too little too late for the new management.
As an American who now lives in India I wonder... how is it that all these Indian carriers (Jet Airways, Kingfisher, etc...) can do so well while in the USA it's so hopeless? Private carriers in India do NOT have frumpy, grumpy employees. The planes are clean and well-maintained, and they still serve meals on domestic flights.
Likewise, last summer we went to Mozambique and air travel both inside the country and between Jo-Burg was great. And in Europe I fly KLM, Air Berlin, etc., with no problems--either on-board or in the airports.
So... why can all these various countries' airlines do it right, when those in the USA cannot?
I'm afraid that this is just one more of many symptoms of America's decline. Our once-great nation is being run into the ground. The failure of certain business ventures in Texas a few decades ago is now an illustrative microcosm of what's happening to the whole nation.
It's a darn shame that all the airlines are showing us their true weaknesses. You would think after 9-11 that the USA would be a strong, and unified nation. The FAA is one of many unfortunate things that make this wonderful country we live in so vulnerable. I hope and pray that we resolve these issues in America so we don't have to give up that strong armor that the USA stands for.... Peace, Liberty, and Happiness!!!!!
We have no place for dishonesty, unloyal, and haphazard security issues on the ground or in the sky.
Sincerely,
A Concerned US Citizen in CA.
God Bless America!
The fact is that big business is treating workers like slaves. Lawyers, medical insurance, and the oil industry CEOs-- all teamed up with big corporate lobbyists have whittled away at the world's economy until they now have destroyed the world market. It started with Nixon when we got rid of the gold standard and sold all the US gold to European investors. If we were to look in Fort Knox, there would not be anything there to amount to a hill of beans. So then not 30 years later we put the icing on the cake when the Bush White House deflated the world GNP by spending trillions and trillions on a War based on fear when millions of struggling Americans were already living with anxiety and depression. Then Bush spent all the money that could have fixed this nation on a war with no positive financial outcome. The war left capital gains and everyday workers miles in debt, and people sick from stress; many Americans unable to get medical coverage to even help them cope from the stress. Today the outcome is that the world is headed into financial armageddon. Many people just cannot be productive workers because of all the everyday stress anymore. Set your zulu watch pilots, our time is a a ticking and soon we will be paid worse than a truck driver.
You pose the question ... >
In reality, U.S. air travel is in a state of transition. The "legacy carriers" are operating on the premise of seat production; a by-product of a passing century frequently called the mass production era. The business processes ... seat-production, hub-centric services, marketing, sales, customer service, etc. ... are all tied to the business tenants of the 1960's! This is largely because the technology platforms of the legacy airline industry were created in that period -- and have never been significantly upgraded. Contemporary airlines, often referred to as "start-up" or "low cost carriers" are presented with a business choice -- adapt the "legacy" business model or create a business model tied to the changing information technology and rapidly evolving knowledge-based society. Ubiquitous access to information give buyers more buying power -- and those start-up or low-cost carriers that have adapted new technology tools to respond to buyer demands are clearly performing better than even new carriers that have opted to the "legacy" business models. Aloha is but one example. It had the opportunity ... even considered it as it came out of bankruptcy; but reverted to the legacy model. Frontier and ATA both launched their businesses successfully with new-technology models; but reverted. The issue is NOT whether free enterprise or government intervention is best for the future of the airline industry -- but rather, what kinds of low-cost services will evolve using new technology business practises.
That is what a society in transition does -- evaluate among competitive solutions that meet BUYER needs. A free-market system tends to work faster and at less cost to the whole of the society it serves than can happen with government regulation or mandated oversight. But in the end, in a democracy representing the majority of all people, the result of either mode will eventually meet the needs of an informed and knowledgeable buyer. The important part is ensuring that the buyer be allowed to choose; that the government is not allowed to mandate what the buyer must use or can have. Giving government that kind of power is folly; as has been clearly demonstrated throughout recent history.
There should be an acknowledgment that escalating energy prices based on fossil fuels is not a fluke. Many business models based on cheap energy are going to have to be retooled.
BusinessWeek editors Dean Foust and Justin Bachman provide road warriors with the latest news, trends in business travel, which as most readers are aware, has all the romance of taking a school bus cross country. Come here to pick up travel news and tips or just commiserate about your latest business trip gone awry.