Royal Wedding vs. the NFL Draft

A weekend of mega-events pits William and Kate against Cam Newton and other top draft picks in the battle for eyeballs, market share, and betting money

By Rick Horrow and Karla Swatek

Can Kate Run the Wildcat?

Despite the NFL lockout—or the No-Longer-Legally-a-Lockout, or the No-Lockout-but-No-Workout, depending on what transpires in court—the NFL draft is going on as planned this week.

This year, however, the rookies in ill-advised suits hugging National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell will likely be overshadowed by cathedral bells, carriages, and proper British ladies in ill-advised hats (most definitely not hugging). Two billion people worldwide are expected to tune in to the Friday, Apr. 29, nuptials of Prince William and Catherine Middleton. Based on last year's Nielsen ratings, about 19 million people are expected to tune in to Thursday's night's prime-time NFL draft first-round broadcast on ESPN and the NFL Network, with half as many again tuning in on Friday night and Saturday.

In the battle for page views, newsstand sales, and microphones, the hype machine otherwise known as the NFL is getting beaten at its own game. So what's an embattled sports league to do? Leave it to The Wall Street Journal's Jason Gay to propose a solution. On Apr. 25 he tweeted, "Can't the Royal Wedding and NFL Draft be combined into one big, blowy TV spectacle of over-baked nonsense?"

'Cause Cam Newton ain't got nuthin' on the Queen.

£80 Million Royal Wedding vs. the Draft: The Bottom Line

Alas, Charles Barkley, the Sports Person We'd Most Like to Observe at the Royal Wedding, estimated to cost £80 million (about $133 million), didn't get an invite. But David Beckham will be there, as will Australian swimmer and Olympic gold medalist Ian Thorpe, Football Assn. director Sir Trevor Brooking, and Welsh rugby player Gareth Thomas. Otherwise, where sports are concerned, the royal wedding and the NFL draft should best be viewed comparatively.

Take the hunt for collectibles. Researchers have predicted that the British people will shell out a collective £163 million (about $270 million) on royal wedding souvenirs, including tea towels, paper dolls, and monogrammed plates.

The NFL has 2011 commemorative draft hats for each team for $24.99 and T-shirts for $19.99.

Security is a huge concern at the wedding—to fend off potential threats, the 15-minute carriage ride by the newlyweds from Westminster Abbey to Buckingham Palace will require a staff of 5,000 police and hundreds more undercover security officials in an operation costing British taxpayers a minimum of $30 million, according to Canada's The Globe and Mail.

Radio City Music Hall security amounts to an extra handful of New York police officers, paid for by the NFL, and perhaps a bouncer or two guarding the players' green room.

Betting is where these two televised mega-events really converge. British bookmakers say they could see more than $1.6 million worth of royal wedding wagers, but that's chump change compared with what's normally bet on sports.

Wagering shop William Hill (WMH:LN) is offering bets on whether Middleton will get a kiss on the cheek or on the lips when the couple appear on the Buckingham Palace balcony, the color of the Queen's hat, the sex of the couple's first child, and the main course at the wedding reception.

The average royal bets tend to be from £2 to £6; in contrast, the average soccer bet is about £14.

Since the royal wedding is not as big an event for U.S. players, offshore betting concerns like Bodog and Bookmaker, servicing mainly U.S. customers, are focusing more on the NFL draft. Bodog is featuring nearly 40 different NFL draft-related bets, while Sportsbook.com currently has more than 20. Fans can bet on whether Auburn quarterback Cam Newton will be picked No. 1, or whether a lineman will go first. At Bodog, players can bet on the total number of players drafted from a specific NCAA conference, or pit the Southeastern Conference vs. the Big 12 or Big 10.