Analyst Actions: Alcoa, Dick's Sporting Goods, Focus Media

From Standard & Poor's Equity Research

FBR CAPITAL DOWNGRADES ALCOA TO MARKET PERFORM

FBR analyst Amir Arif tells salesforce downgrades Alcoa (AA) from outperform to market perform and lowers his $20 price target to $10 to reflect the company's production curtailments and lower aluminum price outlook.

Arif notes that Alcoa announced additional aluminum production cuts of 350 metric tons per year, to be phased in immediately. He says there's additional downside volume risk for 2009 from two smelters (Spain, Italy) where power contracts needed to be renegotiated.

Including the company's volume cut and reduced aluminum price outlook, he cuts $0.13 fourth quarter EPS estimate to $0.10, $0.79 for 2009 to $0.40, and $2.52 2010 to $0.99.

WEDBUSH MORGAN CUTS DICK'S SPORTING GOODS TO HOLD FROM BUY

Wedbush Morgan analyst Jeff Mintz says he believes that the current consumer slowdown will impact Dick's Sporting Goods' (DKS) ability to achieve his longer-term growth expectations as developers build fewer new retail centers and consumers reduce discretionary spending.

Therefore, he expects the 18.7% annual organic store unit growth achieved from calendar year 2002-2007 to decline over the next few years and is likely to be below the 12.2% unit growth he expects for calendar year 2008.

Along with his downgrade, Mintz cuts $1.31 fiscal year 2009 (January) EPS estimate to $1.24, $1.53 fiscal year 2010 EPS to $1.27, and $25 target price to $15.

SUSQUEHANNA DOWNGRADES FOCUS MEDIA

Susquehanna analyst C. Ming Zhao says he's downgrading Focus Media Holding Ltd. (FMCN) to neutral from positive on disappointing third quarter results and fourth quarter guidance shortfall.

Zhao says due to its huge revenue base, FMCN is facing strong headwinds from the worsening macro economy in China, as well as the global financial crisis. As the new and slower economic growth cycle has just started in China, he expects more bad news to hit the company's growth in 2009.

Also, he remains discouraged by the company's free cash flow generation. He cuts $1.87 2008 adjusted EPS estimate to $1.73, $2.32 for 2009 to $1.63.