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Get Four
|  | NOVEMBER 15, 2004
 PAUL CHERNEY By Paul Cherney Trend Remains Positive Momentum measures suggest that any short-term price weakness should attract buyers, not sellers This is option expiration week and there should be some sort of profit-taking, even if it only lasts a day. Tuesday, Nov. 16, would be a prime time for prices to move a little lower, but if the CBOE volatility index, or VXO, starts to head lower and undercuts the 13.56 level, I think there could be a panicked short-covering (related to the Friday expiration) in place. The technical condition of the market has not really changed: the trend for prices remains positive. A retracement would be natural at any time. End-of-day momentum measures suggest that any short-term price weakness should attract buyers, not sellers, so downside risk should be limited. Any price weakness would not change my expectations that a retracement should be limited in depth and duration. The Nasdaq has resistance at 2,049-2,094; resistance thickens at 2,079-2,094. The next resistance is 2,108-2,153.83. Immediate intraday Nasdaq support is 2,068-2,025 with thick intraday support at 2,068-2,056. Another layer of strong support exists at 2,036-2,027.69. Next intraday support is 2,020.67-2,002. S&P 500 intraday support is 1,177-1,160; support is thick at 1,170-1,160. The next layer of organized intraday support is 1,147-1,138.50. The S&P 500 has thick resistance at 1,185-1,226. We are at the beginning of what has been historically, on average, the three best performing months of the year: November through January.  Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Standard & Poor's Regulatory Disclosure Any advice, analysis, or recommendations contained in articles labeled "Insight from Standard & Poor's" reflect the views of Standard & Poor's, which operates separately from and independently of BusinessWeek Online. It is possible that BWOL may from time to time publish information that is not consistent with advice, analysis, or recommendations that are published by Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's and BusinessWeek Online are each units of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
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