Stocks & Markets March 21, 2010, 7:20PM EST

Energy Stocks: The Top Prospects

(page 2 of 2)

Story Tools

Molchanov expects oil to average $80 a barrel in 2010 and $95 a barrel in 2011.

Getting Rid of Refineries

Integrated companies are trying to invest more in exploration and development, the "upstream" side of the business, while reducing their presence on the downstream side by closing or trying to sell refineries and service stations, often at steep discounts. Valero Energy (VLO) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS/A:US) are each in the process of shutting down one plant, while Chevron is trying to sell its Pembroke, U.K., refinery. (Raymond James has received noninvestment banking securities-related compensation from Valero within the past 12 months.)

Molchanov's top picks right now are Chevron and Hess (HES), both of which have little refining exposure. One metric he finds instructive is a company's ratio of proved reserves to refining capacity. "The higher the number, the better," he says. "Chevron is at 5.2%, and Hess is at 4.5%. To put that in perspective, Marathon Oil [MRO], which is very refining oriented, is at 1.4%." (Molchanov and/or a research associate own shares of Chevron.)

Another useful metric is the portion of a company's total proved reserves that comes from its North American natural gas reserves, which tells you which companies have the least exposure to gas. Domestic natural gas currently accounts for about 4% of Chevron's and Hess's total proved reserves worldwide. At the other extreme is ConocoPhillips (COP), with 21% of its proved reserves made up of North American natural gas. The excessive debt that Conoco took on in buying Burlington Resources in 2006 also makes that stock a bad bet, in Molchanov's view.

Oily Exploration

As for independent exploration and production companies, Nicholas Pope, an analyst at Dahlman Rose, upgraded Denbury Resources (DNR) to buy from hold in a Mar. 9 research note, citing greater clarity on the beneficial impact of the company's $3.25 billion purchase of Encore Acquisition—which develops oil and gas fields in the Rockies, Texas, and Oklahoma—, a deal scheduled to close in early April, and improved production growth from the combined company. With 76% of its production in oil, the combined company will be one of the "oiliest" domestic exploration and production companies, the note said.

Among independent oil-oriented producers in the U.S., Parker prefers Concho Resources (CXO) to Denbury, citing Concho's "repeatable" production growth profile. While Denbury can flood its fields with CO2 to squeeze out the last drop of oil, its properties tend to provide uneven growth over the long term. Investors also need to be mindful of potential integration issues after completion of the Encore acquisition, he warns.

"I prefer Concho today because I can see 20%-plus [production] growth for at least the next few years," he says. "And they're savvy asset buyers in the Permian Basin," an oil-rich area that spans western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

Oilfield Service Plays

Parker regards Hess and Nexen (NXY) as deeper value plays. Neither company increases its production much each year, and each can be bought at a fairly low valuation, which will look more attractive as oil prices rise.

Natural gas plays should be left to experts who can to identify companies with the lowest cost, most efficient production methods, says Parker. Those are the ones best positioned to do well in the long-term, low-price environment.

Big oilfield service companies such as Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), and Baker Hughes (BHI) make sense now that exploration is rebounding from "disaster" levels in late 2008 and early 2009, says Parker. A raft of new projects by the end of 2010 will also create opportunities for McDermott International (MDR), which builds offshore production platforms, since deposits at depths of 10,000 feet or more continue to be the best sources of oil. Deepwater discoveries will also benefit FMC Technologies (FTI) and Cameron International (CAM), makers of subsea hardware that makes bringing oil to the ocean surface more efficient, he says.

Bogoslaw is a reporter for Bloomberg BusinessWeek's Finance channel.