Where Cautious Consumers Are Causing Chaos

As Americans rein in spending, BusinessWeek looks at three key industries that are taking significant hits

By Ben Steverman

Cutting costs has become an obsession for many consumers. With home prices falling and layoffs rising, many in the U.S. and around the world are seeking creative ways to save more.

U.S. consumers saved $545.5 billion in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Mar. 2. That's a savings rate of 5%, up from just 0.1% one year before. Expensive, one-time purchases seem to be the first to go. So, new auto and home sales have plunged, while casinos and resorts see fewer visitors.

But much emphasis also is being placed on reducing daily and monthly expenditures. (Last August, BusinessWeek offered its own tips on reducing your regular spending.)

For investors tracking this trend, it's become apparent that this spending slowdown is not hitting every firm equally.

Sales at discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT) or Family Dollar Stores (FDO) are holding up well. Investors have spared the stocks from the significant damage suffered by other retailers, with Wal-Mart shares down just 5.5% in the past year and Family Dollar's stock actually higher by 59%.

However, tightfisted consumers are having serious effects on companies in industries that serve the better-heeled. BusinessWeek surveyed analysts who cover three industries that are prime recipients of discretionary spending—makers of alcoholic beverages, operators of health clubs, and luxury-goods manufacturers—to gauge the effects of the spending slowdown.

Alcoholic-Beverage Firms: Low Spirits

Consumers are still drinking, but they're drinking differently, says Esther Kwon, a Standard & Poor's equity analyst who covers brewers and distillers.

Shares of Brown-Forman (BFA) fell almost 10% on Mar. 10 after an earnings report that showed disappointing sales for its pricier Southern Comfort and Jack Daniel's whiskey brands. It's part of a shift toward cheaper drink options among consumers, Kwon says.

"People are not going out as much and, when they do, they're buying lower-priced drinks," she says. Customers might choose less fancy vodka in their mixed drinks, or order a beer instead.

This follows trends in previous recessions. Natixis Securities analyst Francois Digard notes that the U.S. beer market was relatively unchanged in the 2000 recession. Beer volumes fell 4.5% in the 1991 downturn, but spirits dropped 8.5% and wine volume fell 10.2%.

"Trading down always happens" in downturns, Kwon says. But, "this time it's [happening] a little faster than people had expected."

Health Clubs: Feeling the Burn

Another place consumers can cut back is on monthly charges like health clubs.

Morgan Keegan analyst John Lawrence downgraded Life Time Fitness (LTM) last month, saying he "remain[ed] concerned on the sustainability of membership growth."

By opening new clubs and offering aggressive sales, Life Time continues to boost membership numbers. But other trends are troubling. Attrition at Life Time clubs—the number of members not renewing memberships—has risen over the last four quarters, from 35% to 38% to 41% and to 42.3% last quarter.

Another smaller firm, Town Sports International (CLUB)—which operates urban Sports Clubs in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.—saw its stock drop 12.8% when it reported earnings on Mar. 3.