Vital Signs: Betting on Lower Rates

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MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS - Wednesday, Mar. 28, 7 a.m. EDT

The Mortgage Bankers Association issues its weekly mortgage application volume data for home buying and refinancing activity during the week ending Mar. 23. For the week ended Mar. 16, both the purchase and refi indexes eased some more. The purchase index was 410.6, from 414.3 in the week ended Mar. 9. The refi index slipped to 2208.6, from 2312.2 in the prior week.

The four-week moving average for the purchase index rose to 407.9, from 400.6 in the prior week. The four-week average for the refi index grew to 2174.6, from 2102.8. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage crept back up to 6.06% from 6.03% in the week ended Mar. 9.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS - Wednesday, Mar. 28, 8:30 a.m. EDT

New orders for durable goods probably rebounded in February, after a dismal showing at the start of the year. New orders in January plunged 8.7%. A 60.2% drop in civilian aircraft orders accounted for a large portion of the monthly decline but the several areas outside of aircraft were lower as well. Construction machinery fell 40.6%, motor vehicle and parts orders slipped 6.7%, and computer and electronic products were down 9.5%.

A pickup in February factory output and a rebound in the new orders index in the Institute for Supply Management's national factory activity report bode well for February durable goods orders.

Within the February figures look at the capital goods orders minus defense equipment and civilian aircraft. This statistic gives a truer picture of business investment. There have been signs that companies are reining in capital expenditures.

MEETINGS OF NOTE

Thursday, Mar. 29, 8:30 a.m. EDT - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker gives the opening remarks at the Federal Reserve's Community Affairs Research Conference in Washington, D.C.

12 p.m. EDT - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Gary Stern delivers a luncheon address at the University of Dayton's seventh annual Redefining Investment Strategy Education forum in Dayton, Ohio.

12:30 p.m. EDT - Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge to address the Americas Society and Council of the Americas in New York City.

8 p.m. EDT - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker discusses inflation and unemployment at the 34th Annual Meeting of the Virginia Association of Economists in Richmond, Va.

JOBLESS CLAIMS - Thursday, Mar. 29, 8:30 a.m. EDT

Jobless claims for the week ended Mar. 17 fell to 316,000. In the prior week, claims fell to an upwardly revised 320,000, from an originally reported 318,000. The four-week moving average fell to 326,000, from 329,750 in the week ended Mar. 10. Continuing jobless claims for the week ended Mar. 10 edged down to 2.5 million, from 2.57 million in the week ended Mar. 3.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - Thursday, Mar. 29, 8:30 a.m. EDT

The final report isn't expected to show much change to fourth quarter figures. After the initial data showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.5%, revised figures released in February showed a markedly softer growth rate of 2.2%. Inventory growth slowed more than the government had expected, business investment was revised down, and the growth in personal consumption was also trimmed a little.

HELP-WANTED INDEX - Thursday, Mar. 29, 10 a.m. EDT

The Conference Board issues its index of help-wanted ads, based on ads gathered from major newspapers across the nation. The January index gave back some of the December gains, falling to 32, from 34. The January level a year ago was 38. Along with a lower index result, the percentage of markets with a rising want-ad volume plunged to 39%, from 80% in December and 41% in November.

Due to the strong level in December, help-wanted ads still managed to grow during the three-month period through January in eight of the nine U.S. regions.

The Conference Board's tracking of online job ads already showed a better result for February, although the index is not seasonally adjusted. Total monthly online job ads jumped by 682,400 in February. That resulted in 2.5 advertised vacancies for every 100 persons in the labor force, up from 2.1 in January.