Vital Signs: Betting on Lower Rates

(page 2 of 4)

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES - Monday, Mar. 26, 10 a.m. EDT

New single-family homes sales probably remained soft in February. The January level of sales dropped to an annual rate of 937,000, from 1.12 million in December. The latest drop was likely related to the swing in weather from mild temperatures in December to more seasonal conditions in January. More cold, wintry weather could weigh on February results, although February housing starts did rebound some and the February housing market index from the National Association of Home Builders showed improvements in present sales and buyer traffic.

The slide in January left the months supply of homes for sale to hit 6.8 months, from 5.7 months in December. The total number of homes available for sale inched down to 536,000, from 537,000 in the prior month, and 542,000 in November.

MEETING OF NOTE

Tuesday, Mar. 27, 5 a.m. EDT - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto speaks about the internationalization of national currencies at the European Banking & Financial Forum held by the Czech National Bank in Prague.

ICSC-UBS STORE SALES - Tuesday, Mar. 27, 7:45 a.m. EDT

This weekly tracking of retail sales, compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS bank, will update buying activity for the week ended Mar. 24. Sales grew by 0.4% last week, after growing 0.7% in the week ended Mar. 10. The increase from a year ago improved to 2.7% for the week ended Mar. 17, from 2.1% in the prior period.

JOHNSON REDBOOK INDEX - Tuesday, Mar. 27, 8:55 a.m. EDT

This weekly measure of retail activity will report on sales for the third fiscal week of March, ended Mar. 24. Through the first two fiscal weeks ended Mar. 17, sales were up 0.5% compared to the same period in February. For the complete month of February sales were off 1.1% from January.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX - Tuesday, Mar. 27, 10 a.m. EDT

The Conference Board's March monthly index of consumer confidence is expected to move lower. The February index climbed to 112.5, from 110.2 in January and 110 in December. The February headline reading was driven by an improvement in consumers' view of current conditions. The present situation index rose to 139- the highest reading since August of 2001- from 133.9 in January.

Respondents believed business conditions were better in February. At the same time, fewer believed that jobs were both hard to get and plentiful, reflecting a more neutral view of the labor market. The survey also showed that consumers feel less optimistic about their income prospects. Fewer see income gains in the coming six months, while slightly more consumers expect incomes to fall.

RICHMOND FED SURVEY - Tuesday, Mar. 27, 10 a.m. EDT

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank releases its March regional survey of business conditions. The composite reading edged up to -10 in February, from -11 in January. A negative result means factory output across the area is declining. The shipments index showed that demand is softening some more, with a reading of -15, from -13 in January. The new orders series was at -4, up from -12 the month before. The weaker activity hit the employment index, which tumbled to -13, from a reading of -5 in each of the prior two months.

Looking ahead to the next six months respondents lost some of the optimism they had in January. The shipments reading fell back to 30, from 45 in January. The new orders, unfilled orders, and capital spending readings also softened in February.