Vital Signs: Can Nerves Be Calmed about Housing?

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MEETING OF NOTE

Monday, Mar. 19, 4 a.m. EDT - U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary Robert Kimmitt to speak about globalization at the "Globalization and the 21st Century World Order Conference" in Berlin.

HOME BUILDERS SURVEY - Monday, Mar. 19, 1 p.m. EDT

The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo bank issues the March Housing Market Index. The report measures housing market conditions by surveying builders on current sales, buyer traffic through model homes, and expectations for sales during the next six months. Builders are becoming less pessimistic about the housing market. The overall reading was 40, the strongest reading since June of 2006. The January reading was 35, up from 33 in December and November. A reading below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good.

Builders have high hopes for this spring. The index tracking expectations for the coming six months hit 55, from 48 in January. The reading for current sales improved to 42, from 36 in the prior month. However, respondents are not reporting a great uptick in buyer traffic. The index for traffic of prosective buyers only reached 31, from 26 in January. This last component also ran far below the other two during the boom. Even so, the prospective buyers index has improved less than current and expected sales, which clouds the optimistic outlook of builders.

MEETING OF NOTE

Tuesday, Mar. 20, 9 a.m. EDT - The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee holds a two-day meeting to discuss monetary policy. An announcement by the central bank will come on Wednesday around 2:15 p.m. Fed watchers fully expect the Fed will keep its short-term interest rate at 5.25%.

ICSC-UBS STORE SALES - Tuesday, Mar. 20, 7:45 a.m. EDT

This weekly tracking of retail sales, compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS bank, will update buying activity for the period ending Mar. 17. Weekly sales for the period ended Mar. 10 bounced back with a 0.7% gain, following a 0.4% decline in the preceding week. The increase from a year ago improved to 2.1%, from 1.5% in the prior period.

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION - Tuesday, Mar. 20, 8:30 a.m. EDT

Housing starts probably are expected to have improved a little after tanking in January. Housing starts ran at an annual pace of 1.41 million in January, from 1.64 million in December and 1.57 million in November. The January rate of starts was the weakest since August of 1997 and down 37.8% from a year ago. The February results will likely be affected by a return to cold wintry weather through most of the country.

In January, housing permits slipped to a rate of 1.57 million, from 1.61 million in December. Even though activity has cooled off dramatically, home builders are likely to face continued pressure to lower prices and offer incentives to move unsold homes. Housing completions edged down to an annual pace of 1.88 million, from 1.9 million in December. The pace of completions in January was off only 8% from a year ago. That means a lot of new homes are still being placed on the market, which is one reason the number of completed new homes up for sale has continued to climb.

JOHNSON REDBOOK INDEX - Tuesday, Mar. 20, 8:55 a.m. EDT

This weekly measure of retail activity will report on sales for the second fiscal week of March, ended Mar. 17. For the first fiscal week ended Mar. 10, sales were up 0.2% compared to the same period in February. For the complete month of February, sales were off 1.1% from January.