JUNE 9, 2006



Stock Screens

By Michael Kaye, CFA


Safe Plays for an Uncertain Market

This week, S&P looks for refuge from the tumult in stocks that have solid fundamentals and strong profits


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With stocks feeling a keen downdraft in the past few weeks, investors are understandably nervous. Rising interest rates and the threat of a slowing economy are casting doubt on the future strength of corporate profits. What's an equity investor to do? How about this: Relax, take a deep breath, and take a look at our latest screen.


This week, we decided to find companies with strong profitability, attractive valuation, and a nice dividend payout to boot. Stocks with those qualities could hold up relatively well in a period of market weakness.

Our first filter: profitability, as measured by gross margin. That's what's left over after subtracting the cost of goods sold from revenues, expressed as a percentage. The stocks on our list had to have a gross margin greater than 25% for the most recent full fiscal year, greater than the average for the S&P 500 index.

DIVIDEND CHECK.  Next, return on equity, which is basically a measure of how efficiently a company employs its capital. We looked for outfits with an ROE of 25% for the most recent full fiscal year, also above the average for the S&P 500.

Then we took care of the value part. To ensure that these were reasonably valued stocks, each had to trade at a price-to-earnings ratio (based on the most recent 12-month reporting period) below the S&P 500's multiple of 15.

During a period of wobbly markets, it's nice to own a stock that pays a solid dividend. So we next looked for those issues with a dividend yield above the index's yield of 1.9%.

AND THE WINNERS ARE...  Finally, we reached into our own toolkit. We searched for those issues ranked 4 STARS (buy) or 5 STARS (strong buy) by Standard & Poor's equity analysts. Stocks with those designations are expected to post total returns exceeding the total return of the S&P 500 index over the coming 12 months, and to rise in price on an absolute basis.

When we completed our screen, these nine names made the cut:

CompanyTickerS&P STARS Rank
Altria GroupMO4
Bank Of HawaiiBOH4
BT Group ADRBT4
CNOOC ADRCEO4
Commonwealth TelephoneCTCO5
TCF FinancialTCB4
Telefonica ADRTEF4
Telefonos De Mexico ADRTMX4
TXU Corp.TXU4



Kaye, an analyst for Standard & Poor's Portfolio Services, is the author of The Standard & Poor's Guide to Selecting Stocks


All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Standard & Poor's Regulatory Disclosure

Any advice, analysis, or recommendations contained in articles labeled "Insight from Standard & Poor's" reflect the views of Standard & Poor's, which operates separately from and independently of BusinessWeek Online. It is possible that BWOL may from time to time publish information that is not consistent with advice, analysis, or recommendations that are published by Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's and BusinessWeek Online are each units of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
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