Vital Signs: Housing and Subprime Hangover

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MEETINGS OF NOTE

Tuesday, July 24, 9 a.m. EDT - Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin takes part in a policy panel discussion at European Central Bank conference on globalization and the macroeconomy in Frankfurt, Germany.

5:30 p.m. EDT - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole gives a speech entitled "Energy in the U.S. Macro Economy" in Wilmington, Del.

ICSC-UBS STORE SALES - Tuesday, July 24, 7:45 a.m. EDT

This weekly tracking of retail sales, compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS bank, will update buying activity for the week ended July 21. Sales edged up 0.3% in the week ended July 14, after two straight weekly gains of 0.1%. The yearly pace of growth picked up to 3.4%, from 2.4% for the week ended July 7.

JOHNSON REDBOOK INDEX - Tuesday, July 24, 8:55 a.m. EDT

This weekly measure of retail activity will report on sales for the first two fiscal weeks of July, ended July 21. In the first week of July, sales were up 0.4% from the same period in June. For the full month of June, sales were off 1.3%.

RICHMOND FED SURVEY - Tuesday, July 24, 10 a.m. EDT

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's survey of manufacturing activity struck a more optimistic chord in June. The seasonally-adjusted composite index turned up to a positive reading of 4, after running in negative territory for six straight months. The shipments and new orders indexes also turned positive after spending all year below zero. The backlog orders index was -5, but that was far better than -18 in May. The labor market readings were still a little soft.

Expectations in June were not as positive as May. The shipments index fell to 21, from 30 in May. The new orders and backlog orders indexes also lost some ground after improving in May. Overall, the Richmond Fed's survey moved back in line with other regional factory activity reports showing stronger activity in recent months.

MEETING OF NOTE

Wednesday, July 25, 5:45 p.m. EDT - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner gives a speech at the IBM Forum on Global Leadership: U.S. Competitiveness in a Globally Integrated Economy, in Washington, D.C.

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS - Wednesday, July 25, 7 a.m. EDT

The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its mortgage Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey of home buying and refinancing application activity for the week ending July 20. In the week ended July 13, the purchase index eased off to 446.5, from 453.9 in the prior week. The refi index bounced back by 4.9%, to 1717.4, from 1636.9 for the period ended July 6.

The four-week moving average for the purchase index edged down to 441.6, from 442.8 in the week ended July 6. The four-week average for the refi index dropped to 1693.3, from 1708.1 for the period ended July 6. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.61%, from 6.65% in the previous week.

EXISTING HOME SALES - Wednesday, July 25, 10 a.m. EDT

Existing homes probably held steady in June, after falling for a third straight month in May. Sales came in at an annual rate of 5.99 million, from 6.01 million in April, and 6.15 in March. The inventory of homes for sale shot up to 4.4 million units, or 8.9 months worth of sales in May, from 8.4 months in April, and 6.4 months a year ago.

Among condos and single-family homes, the former appears to be stabilizing more quickly. Condo sales are down just 6.7% from a year ago, while single-family home sales are off 10.8%.

Based on the latest figures, sellers will keep facing pressure to lower prices. In May, the median sales price was down 2.1% from a year ago, with the price of a single-family home off by 2.4%.

BEIGE BOOK - Wednesday, July 25, 2 p.m. EDT

The Federal Reserve will release its compilation of regional economic activity, based on survey responses from each of its 12 districts. The Beige Book will come ahead of the two-day monetary policy meeting on Aug. 7. Economists surveyed by Action Economics fully expect the Fed will leave interest rates at 5.25%, and many now expect rates will hold steady through the rest of 2007.

The markets will browse this report for any signs of changes in current economic conditions. The report does come on the heels of Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony before Congress that included the release of the Fed's monetary policy report, as well as the minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy meeting on June 27-28. Therefore, few surprises are likely to show up in this report.