JANUARY 25, 2006
Advice from Standard and Poors
SAM STOVALL'S SECTOR WATCH
By Sam Stovall

In Search of the Unsinkable Sector

S&P finds pockets of strength during a time when most industries were falling into the red



During the trading week of Jan. 16, the S&P Composite 1500 (consisting of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 indices) fell 1.9%. Nine of the 10 sectors posted declines, and nearly 75% of the subindustry indexes registered red ink. Yet some industries were bucking the trend.


Here's a table of industries that not only advanced last week but also have a positive absolute trend, since their 17-week average price is above their 43-week average price. They also have a 12-month relative strength ranking (RSR) of 4 or 5 (in the top 30%), or have seen an increase in their RSR during the past four weeks. A selected industry representative with the highest S&P STARS ranking is also shown.

  Industries That Show Relative Strength
Industry 4 Wks. Prior RSR Current RSR % Price Change 1 Wk. 4- or 5-STARS Stocks
Members of High Momentum List:    
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 5 5 0.7 None
Oil & Gas Drilling 5 5 4.3 Nabors Industries (NBR, *****)
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 5 5 8.7 Baker Hughes (BHI, ****)
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 5 5 4.1 Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, *****)
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 5 5 3 Valero Energy (VLO, *****)
Railroads 5 5 3.9 Canadian National Railway (CNI, ****)
Industries Bucking the Trend:    
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 4 1.1 Best Buy (BBY, ****)
Electric Utilities 3 4 1.4 FPL Group (FPL, *****)
Electronic Equipment Manufacturers 3 4 0.2 Keithley Instruments (KEI, ****)
Food Retail 4 4 1 Safeway (SWY, ****)
Integrated Oil & Gas 4 4 0.8 Exxon Mobil (XOM, *****)
Steel 4 4 1.2 None
Air Freight & Logistics 2 3 0.8 FedEx (FDX, *****)
Electronic Manufacturing Services 2 3 0.3 Jabil Circuit (JBL, ****)
Motorcycle Manufacturers 1 2 0.5 None



So despite suffering through a highly disappointing week, some areas still did well and carry favorable investment prospects by S&P analysts.

Industry Momentum List Update
For regular readers of the "Sector Watch" column, here is this week's list of the industries in the S&P 1500 with Relative Strength Rankings of "5" (price performances in the past 12 months that were among the top 10% of the industries in the S&P 1500) as of Jan. 20, 2006.

Subindustry
Construction & Engineering
Diversified Metals & Mining
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Health Care Services
Managed Health Care
Oil & Gas Drilling
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Railroads
Specialized Finance
Water Utilities





Glossary

S&P STARS: Since January 1, 1987, Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services has ranked a universe of common stocks based on a given stock's potential for future performance. Under proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank stocks according to their individual forecast of a stock's future capital appreciation potential versus the expected performance of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350 Index or S&P 500 Index), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective.

S&P Earnings & Dividend Rank (also known as S&P Quality Rank): Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in establishing S&P's earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings:

       
A+ Highest B Lower
A High C Lowest
A- Above Average D In Reorganization
B+ Average NR Not Ranked
B- Below Average



S&P Issuer Credit Rating: A Standard & Poor's Issuer Credit Rating is a current opinion of an obligor's overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor's capacity and willingness to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of the obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit enhancement on the obligation. The Issuer Credit Rating is not a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold a financial obligation issued by an obligor, as it does not comment on market price or suitability for a particular investor. Issuer Credit Ratings are based on current information furnished by obligors or obtained by Standard & Poor's from other sources it considers reliable. Standard & Poor's does not perform an audit in connection with any Issuer Credit Rating and may, on occasion, rely on unaudited financial information. Issuer Credit Ratings may be changed, suspended, or withdrawn as a result of changes in, or unavailability of, such information, or based on other circumstances.

S&P Core Earnings: Standard & Poor's Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for calculating operating earnings, and focuses on a company's after-tax earnings generated from its principal businesses. Included in the Standard & Poor's definition are employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets, purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains, impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior-year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements.

S&P 12 Month Target Price: The S&P equity analyst's projection of the market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics.

Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services: Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services U.S. includes Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Europe includes Standard & Poor's LLC- London and Standard & Poor's AB (Sweden); Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Asia includes Standard & Poor's LLC's offices in Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo.

Required Disclosures

In the U.S.
As of December 31, 2005, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services U.S. have recommended 28.2% of issuers with buy recommendations, 61.3% with hold recommendations and 10.5% with sell recommendations.

In Europe
As of December 31, 2005, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Europe have recommended 33.8% of issuers with buy recommendations, 46.8% with hold recommendations and 19.4% with sell recommendations.

In Asia
As of December 31, 2005, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Asia have recommended 24.8% of issuers with buy recommendations, 53.1% with hold recommendations and 22.1% with sell recommendations.

Globally
As of December 31, 2005, research analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services globally have recommended 28.7% of issuers with buy recommendations, 59.1% with hold recommendations and 12.2% with sell recommendations.

5-STARS (Strong Buy): Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark, by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.
4-STARS (Buy): Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.
3-STARS (Hold): Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares generally rising in price on an absolute basis.
2-STARS (Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months.
 READER COMMENTS





Stovall is chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor's

All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Standard & Poor's Regulatory Disclosure

Any advice, analysis, or recommendations contained in articles labeled "Insight from Standard & Poor's" reflect the views of Standard & Poor's, which operates separately from and independently of BusinessWeek Online. It is possible that BWOL may from time to time publish information that is not consistent with advice, analysis, or recommendations that are published by Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's and BusinessWeek Online are each units of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.


 BW MALL   SPONSORED LINKS
Buy a link now!

Get BusinessWeek directly on your desktop with our RSS feeds.XML

Add BusinessWeek news to your Web site with our headline feed.

Click to buy an e-print or reprint of a BusinessWeek or BusinessWeek Online story or video.

To subscribe online to BusinessWeek magazine, please click here.

Learn more, go to the BusinessWeekOnline home page

Back to Top


TODAY'S MOST POPULAR STORIES

  1. The Next Meltdown: Credit-Card Debt
  2. The Sky Falls on Wall Street
  3. Stocks: Buyer Beware
  4. Panic Resets Oil Prices
  5. The New Age of Frugality

Get Free RSS Feed >>
  MARKET INFO

Portfolio Service Update

Stock Lookup

Enter name or ticker



Media Kit | Special Sections | MarketPlace | Knowledge Centers
McGraw-Hill Cos.