S&P Upgrades Univision to Strong Buy

Plus: Bristol-Myers remains a sell, Commerce Bancorp gets downgraded to hold, and more

Univision Communications (UVN ): Upgrades to 5 STARS (strong buy) from 4 STARS (buy)
Analyst: Tuna Amobi, CPA, CFA
We believe last week's long-anticipated deal to include Univision in Nielsen's National Television Index bodes well for improved long-term visibility of the company's national ratings among advertisers. Univision's solid ratings are now measured under Nielsen's Hispanic Television Index. We think migration to full Nielsen's National TV Index starting in 2007 should help it chip away at big audience-to-revenue gap compared with English-language networks. The upcoming 2006 soccer World Cup should provide a near-term ratings boost. Our target price rises $3 to $38 on a p-e-to-growth premium to peers and the S&P 500.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY ): Reiterates 2 STARS (sell)
Analyst: Herman Saftlas
The FDA approves Bristol-Myers' Orencia for rheumatoid arthritis. However, its potential is limited by the FDA's restriction of the drug to patients who fail to respond to existing drugs, such as Enbrel and Remicade. Orencia sales in 2006 could also be constrained by production capacity issues. We see Bristol-Myers' patent expirations resulting in sluggish EPS for the company over the next few years. We also think the $1.12 dividend could be in jeopardy if the company loses the upcoming Plavix patent litigation. Our 12-month target price remains $17, applying a below-peer p-e of 13.6 times our 2006 estimate of $1.25.

Commerce Bancorp (CBH ): Downgrades to 3 STARS (hold) from 4 STARS (buy)
Analyst: Christopher Muir
We believe Commerce Bancorp shares are fully valued now, following a 16.5% rise in price since Sept. 30 compared to a 7.3% increase in the S&P 500 Regional Banks index for the same period. We continue to think that Commerce's strategy results in stronger deposit growth than peers, and we look for a continued decline in its net interest margin to be more than offset by increases in earning assets. Our 12-month target price remains $38, although we are trimming our 2005 EPS estimate by 6 cents to $1.74 and 2006's by 8 cents to $1.98 in order to reflect a continued flattening of the yield curve.

Emmis Communications (EMMS ): Maintains 3 STARS (hold)
Analyst: Loran Braverman, CFA
Our EPS estimates remain 5 cents for the November quarter and 9 cents for full fiscal year 2006 (February), reflecting the completion of the pending sale of nine TV stations announced late in the August quarter. In addition, Emmis has acquired a majority interest in a Bulgarian radio company, and it now operates national radio stations or networks in four European countries. Reflecting recent acquisitions and our forecast that Emmis can continue to generate revenue growth above the U.S. radio industry average, we project the company's revenue will rise 6.1% for the November quarter and 11.5% for fiscal year 2006. Our 12-month target price remains $22.

All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
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