AUGUST 25, 2004
Advice from Standard and Poors
MARKET VIEWS
By Karyn McCormack

Companies Are Ready to Spend Again
S&P sees capital expenditures rising this year, for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2001

After two consecutive years of declines, capital spending by companies in the S&P 500-stock index is expected to turn positive for 2004, says Standard & Poor's. The 500 companies will post a year-over-year spending rise of 5.53%, according to S&P.


Capital expenditures for the first quarter of 2004 vs. the first quarter of 2003 increased 5.36%, S&P says. This was the first quarter-over-quarter increase since the fourth quarter of 2001. Spending for the second quarter of 2004 vs. the second of quarter of 2003 is also running higher, at 5.73%. Historically, 32% of the expenditures are made during the first six months of the year, with the third quarter accounting for 29% and the fourth quarter 39%.

HEALHTY INCENTIVES.  The expected rise in capital spending this year may not seem like a lot, but it comes after an 8.95% decline in 2003 and 15.26% drop in 2002, and more relevant, an unwillingness of managements to commit, says Howard Silverblatt, equity market analyst for S&P.

One reason for the rebound dates back to the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, when Congress signed a bill with incentives to encourage corporate spending. The incentives give companies that purchase necessary equipment before the end of 2004 an accelerated depreciation schedule, which permits them to write off the asset quicker and leads to larger deductions, resulting in reduced tax liability and higher cash flow.

Still, Silverblatt notes that while capital expenditures are expected to increase this year from last, they're still down 3.92% from 2002 levels and off 18.49% from their 2001 total.

  Capital Spending Trends
Quarter Change from Year-Ago Quarter
2004 Q2 (preliminary) 5.73%
2004 Q1 5.36%
2003 Q4 -5.10%
2003 Q3 -8.56%
2003 Q2 -11.91%
2003 Q1 -17.12%
2002 Q4 -15.68%
2002 Q3 -13.50%
2002 Q2 -15.88%
2002 Q1 -16.22%
2001 Q4 9.59%
2001 Q3 10.13%
2001 Q2 18.74%
2001 Q1 25.40%
2000 Q4 17.24%
2000 Q3 15.87%
2000 Q2 14.55%
2000 Q1 14.45%



S&P figures also show that capital spending in the utilities and financials sectors of the S&P 500 continues to lag, while industrials and telecommunications surge. Over the past five years, health care has seen the largest gain among the sectors, at a 60% increase, and information technology the largest reduction (30%). Consumer discretionary now accounts for 21% of all expenditures for companies in the S&P 500.

  Q2 2004 Q2 2004 Q2 2004
  Change from Change from Sector
Sector Q2 2003 Q2 2002 Portion
Consumer Discretionary 0.03% -12.62% 21.42%
Consumer Staples 8.56% 7.02% 10.99%
Energy 3.43% 1.62% 16.57%
Financials -13.17% 2.49% 5.11%
Health Care -4.81% 1.49% 6.61%
Industrials 23.75% -19.23% 15.95%
Information Technology 6.31% -18.35% 8.33%
Materials -2.26% 2.00% 3.87%
Telecommunication Services 24.79% -9.34% 10.24%
Utilities -30.26% -69.54% 0.92%
S&P 500 5.73% -9.61% 100.00%




McCormack is senior producer for BusinessWeek Online

All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Standard & Poor's Regulatory Disclosure

Any advice, analysis, or recommendations contained in articles labeled "Insight from Standard & Poor's" reflect the views of Standard & Poor's, which operates separately from and independently of BusinessWeek Online. It is possible that BWOL may from time to time publish information that is not consistent with advice, analysis, or recommendations that are published by Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's and BusinessWeek Online are each units of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.


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