Posted by: Ben Levisohn on November 5, 2009
When the S&P 500 opened at 1047.30 on Nov. 5 and quickly rallied 1.65% to 1063, investors could be pardoned for feeling a sense of déjà. Just yesterday, the S&P 500 opened at 1047.14 and barreled its way up to 1061. But stocks gave back most of their gains after the FOMC meeting, and closed at 1046.50. Will today’s trading end on a happier note?
Technical analysts see some indications that it could. For starters, the market is pushing strongly against its near-term resistance, which is around the 1060 to 1066 level. Yesterday, it hit those levels and fell back. But short term sentiment, as measured by the percentage of stocks trading at 10-day lows, is bearish, says technical analysts at institutional brokerage Concept Capital. That indicates an oversold condition and could point the way higher for stocks.
Still, there are signs that the market is poised to roll over. On Nov. 4, more stocks moved down than up, a bad sign after the S&P 500 spent so much of the day in the green. And despite the oversold conditions, the market hasn’t been able to put together any positive momentum, Concept Capital says.
More worrisome is the 60-day average correlation of individual stocks to the S&P 500. Right now, that number is 62% — it would have to trade above 70% to be problematic. But if it keeps rising, it could be a sign of long-term weakness to come. Says Concept Capital: “A prolonged rise in correlation could indicate that a more significant period of market weakness is starting to develop.”