Let call the whole thing off

Posted by: Howard Silverblatt on January 17, 2008

Personally, I am giving this market until the close of February 6th, Ronald Reagan’s birthday, to trickle up or I’m declaring the year over, and you are all invited to the New Year’s party (on the street of course). That is if we can live through the State of the Union (1/28), FOMC (1/29-30), housing (S&P/Case-Shiller 1/29), employment (2/1), Super Tuesday (2/5), the post-election repositioning (2/6), and the next Giant game (1/20, and maybe 2/3 - why not, I believe in miracles).
At some point the market has to bounce back, if only to go down again. But I don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel yet - and I’m not even sure I can see clearly given all the events. We’re down 14.8% from the October 9 highs, and we need to see that there is an end to this before any significant bottom fishing will come in. The stimulus package and FOMC could help, but the February 1 employment numbers are key.
Month-to-date January is down -9.20% (based on the preliminary close)
The worst performing January for the S&P 500 was in 1970, when the index posted a 7.65% loss
Today was the 16th worst point drop in S&P 500 history, and the 296th worst percentage drop
YTD breadth is bad, and five sectors are in double-digit negative territory
Oh well, tomorrow is another day, and its on to General Electric (GE), where the text may be as important than the numbers

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About

Bloomberg Businessweek’s Ben Steverman focuses on the latest moves in financial markets and emerging trends in stocks, bonds, and funds, always with an eye toward giving readers a better understanding of the sometimes confusing and often chaotic world of money. Standard & Poor’s senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt will also provide his take on companies’ finances and the markets. Voted one of the “Top 100 Finance Blogs” in 2007.

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