by Paul Raeburn
fter considering what the past century has brought us, the temptation to speculate about the future is almost irresistible. What will the next 100 years of innovation lead to? H.G. Wells tried to answer that question a century ago, in his 1899 novel When the Sleeper Wakes. There, he foresaw that color television would bring viewers images from around the world instantaneously. He also predicted that supersonic aircraft would fly from London to New York in two hours.
But as the Princeton University physicist Freeman J. Dyson points out, some of Wells's predictions were less successful: He forecast, for example, that hypnotism would replace drugs and anesthetics in medicine.
Jules Verne did not do much better. In Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea, he predicted the submarine. But he also predicted that a rise in world population would lead to automated baby-feeding machines.
In 1999, some things are easy to predict. Computers will continue to get smaller, faster, and cheaper—and become ever better chess players. The human genetic code will be deciphered in the next few years, opening up vast new possibilities for the treatment and prevention of disease. If Congress continues to support space exploration, NASA researchers could find out in the next decade or two whether life exists on Mars or Jupiter's moon Europa, the solar system's two most likely candidates.
Researchers will also learn to connect brain cells and silicon chips. The photo shows two rat brain cells that have been grown on a silicon chip. This experiment is designed to show that the wiring of the living neurons can connect with silicon circuitry. Such experiments could, one day, give rise to electronic devices to reconnect severed spinal cords, enabling paralyzed patients to stand and walk.
The problem with these easy predictions is that they don't reveal much about what life will be like in the next 100 years. How will computers and artificial intelligence change lives? Will the decoding of the human genome lead to gene therapies available only to the rich, increasing the gulf between the haves and have-nots? Will studies of the brain help us to understand and prevent violence? The answers to those questions are not yet known.
The past century was extraordinarily rich in innovation and scientific progress. There has never been a century like it, and we might worry that there can never be another. It is unlikely that we will ever again see the likes of Edison or Einstein, to mention two whose 20th century accomplishments far surpassed those of their colleagues. But Edison, Einstein, and the other great innovators of this century would surely have shared the view that technological and scientific progress will continue. In that spirit, we might hazard one simple prediction: In the next 100 years, the only thing to be certain of is surprise.
PHOTO: 1999, CRAIGHEAD RESEARCH GROUP/CNF
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