I’m in Austin, ready to take part in a panel discussion on Sunday afternoon at South by Southwest Interactive (post Mark Zuckerberg’s keynote). The title of the panel is pretty provocative: “Will tomorrow’s world still need designers?” — and my fellow panelists include Frog Design’s David Merkoski, Jump Associates’ Alonzo Canada, with the whole thing being moderated by Johanna Blakley, Deputy Director at the USC Norman Lear Center.
I am both somewhat excited and fearful that the discussion will take us all over the place, but many of the issues are key to the design industry — not to mention the world as a whole. Johanna posted about the panel on her own blog, and she’s worth quoting here… more of her thoughts after the jump.
“Much has been made of the consequences of democratizing design. Already, the designer’s responsibility has shifted from creating objects and experiences to creating the conditions for innovation — putting into the hands of the masses the tools to make their own designs. However, the threat to the livelihood of designers may well go beyond packs of online amateurs,” she writes.
"Futurist Ray Kurzweil has predicted that $1,000 worth of computation in the 2020s will be 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain. The result? By 2020, greatly extended human longevity (and a cure for the common cold, thank God); by 2030, nanobots that can repair our bodies on the fly; by 2040, machine back-ups of human memories. In the same time frame, we’ll spend less time in front of computers and more time inside of them, working and playing in virtual worlds.
And what comes along with all this amazing progress? A fear that we won’t be able to stay ahead of the game. As countless movies and sci-fi stories have told us, the terrorists could use this technology against us or the powerful computers that we’ve created could take over. While some critics have claimed that this is basically ‘the Rapture for nerds,’ Kurzweil — whose fan club includes Bill Gates, Marvin Minsky, and folks at the National Institute of Health — expects that by 2045, non-biological intelligence will be one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today. Stanford’s Paul Saffo has asked, will this super intelligence treat us like pets or like food?
This presents an obvious quandary to designers, who may be regarded as the agents of our salvation or our destruction when ‘the Singularity’ (or the nerdocalypse) arrives. As Mary Shelley so brilliantly depicted in Frankenstein, playing God can have tremendous costs. If we’re the first species to take over our own evolution, will designers live like Gods or be chronically unemployed?”
I've already got tons of questions to ask both Johanna and the panel. If you've got any -- or, indeed, any general comments, let me know.
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