How the Wii Is Winning

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A separate analyst, Michael Pachter with Wedbush Morgan Securities, who wasn't involved with the BrandIntel report says such studies of purchase intent are actually "quite useful and extremely accurate."

"It's great data for forecasting, provided that we make realistic assumptions about pricing and functionality in the future," he says, wryly referring to the importance of one of the main aspects of his job, which is essentially trying to predict the industry's future.

Pachter says that it's not surprising that Wii purchase intent is higher than the other two, but he doesn't believe it's because Super Mario Galaxy is going to be totally sweet.

"Purchase intent for McDonald's burgers is higher than purchase intent at Ruth's Chris steakhouse," he says analogously. "Of course, a burger costs 69 cents, and the average ticket at Ruth's is $40, but who's counting?

"In other words, price is the determining factor of consumer purchase intent. More people buy Fords than Porsches. Ask people which they would buy at the same price, and I'd bet that 99 percent pick Porsche. Ask them which they'd buy if the price was only 50 percent higher for a Porsche (instead of 400 percent), and the numbers would skew dramatically in favor of Porsche.

"At $249 with a game, the Wii is a bargain. Once the PS3 is $299 and the 360 is $249, the Wii will probably be $149, and purchase intent will shift. Once Blu-ray becomes the high definition movie standard, purchase intent will again shift," Pachter states.

While Pachter says that price is the determining factor for purchase intent (at the same time likening the Wii to a McDonald's hamburger), BrandIntel gaming analyst Gerrard Suyao says other factors play a large role as well.

"Wii is very much ahead of PS3," Suyao says, citing Wii's lower price point, intuitive control and a subsequent appeal to the casual gamer as reasons for its appeal.

"On top of that, games like Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros. are creating positive word of mouth."

Suyao believes that the PS3, priced twice as much as the Wii, is closing in on a crucial time during which it needs to deliver on all its promises. "Everybody knows that PS3 has a lot of potential," he says. "Its processors are very powerful. It's just that Sony needs to lower the price to compete with the 360, even. I think PlayStation Home might be pretty critical…If that doesn't follow through and meet expectations, I think that might be the end of the PlayStation—well, never say never, but online will be crucial, I think."

Arguably even more interesting than the Wii is the more expensive Xbox 360, whose purchase intent remains competitive with the Wii despite Microsoft's public admission of widespread design flaws in the hardware. Thanks in part to an extension of the Xbox 360's warranty (which resulted in more than a $1 billion charge for Microsoft), consumers seem to have remained loyal.

"That's pretty indicative about how strongly gamers feel about their intent to purchase no matter what happens to the console," Suyao believes. "Those faulty consoles were a pretty big deal… but the intent to purchase didn't waver too much."

Dean adds that Xbox 360's purchase intent is indicative of Microsoft "handling the situation effectively." It's also indicative of just how far a billion dollars can go.

BrandIntel believes the results of holiday sales will be quite revealing, and could help industry watchers map out more accurately where exactly this console war is going. But neither Sanyao or Dean are willing to place their bets on any console, even the Wii.

"Nintendo is really well positioned," Dean admits. "They're not competing on the same metrics as the other consoles. In effect, the gamble they took has paid off very handsomely for them."

Provided by Next Generation—Interactive Entertainment Today