Japan: The Psychology of a Hardware Launch

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Only when truly compelling, broadly-appealing games are being widely advertised can a console sell to all the nooks and crannies of the consumer psyche; only then can downloadable contents such as playable demos and game videos be gauged in effectiveness with the Japanese people; and only then can well-placed, well-implemented online content suggestion and recommendation software truly render traditional PR, marketing, advertising, and entertainment journalism as we know it utterly unnecessary. Imagine a world where every game has a demo, and every developer has a video blog, and every player has a buddy list full of people they actually know, saying things like "Hey, maybe you'd like this."

In other words, the PlayStation 3 is launching in a couple of weeks. It's going to have Ridge Racer and some giant enemy crabs. Who cares? The "Next Generation" won't be here for a couple of years, at least.

FAMITSU'S PRESIDENT PREDICTS SALES

Famitsu's editor-in-chief Hirokazu Hamamura recently predicted that Sony would not be able to produce 6 million units of the PlayStation 3 by the end of March 2007. However, he believes 750,000 will sell (in Japan) by the end of this year, and 2.5 million by the end of next year. He also predicts that Sony will sell 12 million units worldwide by the end of 2007.

His "2.5 million [in Japan] by the end of 2007" is a statement made with crystal-clear, predictable reasoning: not a single one of the last four Final Fantasy games released in Japan has failed to sell 2.5 million copies, and Final Fantasy XIII is being released for the PlayStation 3 next year. Hamamura is allowing a little leeway -- hypothesizing, as it were, that, as with Final Fantasy X on PlayStation 2 in 2001, some fans might not initially be devoted enough to purchase a new console. He estimates 2.5 million regardless, perhaps as a nod of respect to the other interesting-looking games on the system. A skilled mathematician can derive from Hamamura's predictions that he is accounting for waning popularity of the Final Fantasy franchise.

Meanwhile, Hamamura predicts sales of a million Wiis in Japan before the end of 2006, 3.4 million by the end of 2007 in Japan, and 10.48 million worldwide by the end of 2007. Contrast these predictions with the PlayStation 3 predictions to see that Hamamura believes the Wii will be more popular in Japan than the PS3, though the PS3 will be more popular worldwide.

Dragons

Furthermore, Hamamura also predicts that 100,000 Xbox 360s will sell before the end of 2006. This is an optimistic prediction, and it comes just ahead of the recent news that preorders on Blue Dragon console bundles are selling out in retailers all over Japan. Microsoft will release 100,000 of the bundles. Hamamura expresses that 150,000 Xbox 360s have already been sold, so his prediction that 100,000 more will sell before the end of the year probably means he thinks the Blue Dragon bundle will sell all 100,000 units. At the same time, he seems to be writing off the "Anniversary Core Pack" that's being launched in a quantity of 100,000 on November 2nd.

Hamamura goes on to predict that the Xbox 360 will be in 560,000 homes by the end of 2007. Chief among Hamamura's reasons for his Xbox 360 predictions is Blue Dragon. Hamamura is a lover of certain videogames who just so happens to be in charge of the most powerful videogame magazine in Japan, and, with Blue Dragon, he seems to be taking something of a position of responsibility, as journalists often do: in other words, sometimes people buy things because it's been predicted they will buy them. Hamamura is simultaneously speaking for a game's quality and amusing himself by putting a down-payment on being eventually proven right by facts.

SQUARE-ENIX HIRING VIDEOGAME MAGAZINE READERS (AGAIN)

The news: According to ads places on Famitsu.com and Game|Watch, Square-Enix is hiring game planners. The job page on the Square-Enix website explains the job contents: "Story / game design / battle / map planning; direction and simple text data creation.