Posted by: Jon Fine on November 25, 2008
In December of last year, I wrote a column of media predictions for 2008.
My track record: well, not so good. Out of twelve predictions, three were inarguably right (New York Times Co. continues to stonewall its current media pressures Kevin Martin’s half-measure proposal to loosen some cross-ownership regulations goes nowhere—I know, I barely remember it myself, but it was in the news last November, daily newspapers begin to redefine the word “daily” by dropping certain days’ editions), even if some of the details buried beneath each predictions’ headline was not. Three others were mostly-right, or sort-of-right (Murdoch hasn’t destroyed the Wall Street Journal, in my view; technological issues continue to make mobile phones and undernourished media and ad platforms; and Jeff Bewkes moved very quickly to remark Time Warner, and explored AOL partnerships, with, well, everyone). And some of them were frankly way-off-totally-wrong. I predicted Microsoft would totally give up on media, as opposed to, I dunno, launch a weird passive-aggressive $40 billion-plus bid for a media company called Yahoo.
If you want to take shots at me for being so misguided, have at it!
But also: I’m working on another predictions column and thus I’d also like to ask all of you--what’s going to happen next year? Really. Media and marketing next year face a host of ridiculous economic pressures atop the stuff everyone’s been writing about for years.
Surely many big things—things that reshape major portion of media, things that no one could have foreseen--are going to happen.
What will some of them be?