Seeking Predictions For ‘08

Posted by: Jon Fine on November 21, 2007

Suggestions gratefully accepted: What are two or three things that will happen in media and advertising in 2008?

In 2007 the weaknesses in newspapers business models finally began crushing their bottom lines, writers struck, Diller chopped up his company, Parsons finally said when he was gonna go, Murdoch bought Dow Jones, Google got much bigger, Yahoo didn’t, CD sales fell even in a genre previously immune to declines, and Facebook got traction among older folk (after opening up- to them in late ‘06), leading to innumerable columns and articles like this one.

So what’s on tap next?

Reader Comments

Kawika Holbrook

November 21, 2007 5:08 PM

Google will bravely remove the word "beta" from Gmail and start incorporating social networking tools.

John Girard

November 21, 2007 5:32 PM

"Digital escape velocity" will become a focus (and a reality) for traditional media companies.

What's often forgotten in the hand-wringing over the declines in the core business of media companies is that the rates of growth in digital properties are much greater than the rates of decline of the traditional business. If this trend holds, there will be a point when declines in offline are more than offset by gains in online even though the total size of offline contributions will still be much larger than the total size of online contributions -- digital escape velocity will be achieved.

Too many naysayers focus on the relative size of the offline business segment versus the online segment rather than the magnitude of the changes in each. For instance, the losses of a $100m traditional business shrinking at 5% annually can be offset by a $5m digital business that doubles over the course of the same year.

Rhea

November 21, 2007 6:12 PM

E-books will begin to be taken seriously. Daily newspapers will buy each other up.

A. Lipton

November 22, 2007 3:30 PM

Magazine rate bases will accelerate in decline as companies can not afford to maintain them in the face of shifting advertising to the Internet.

Burkle's new company will be a disaster with junk the biggest asset on the books.

jon burg

November 25, 2007 9:58 AM

1) Tech centric (products or services) ads will grow exponentially as compared with every other category other than politics.

2) Digital video advertising will continue to grow, particularly around syndicated television - shows we know and love, be them new or old. TV is about the value of the experience, not the freshness of last nights episode of "So You Think You Can Play The Piano With Your Feet While Juggling And Being Attacked By Bears - ALL NEW!".

3) While analog traditional media outlets like newspapers and magazines will see a decrease, they will begin to adopt newer more realistic and efficient models that better address their market standing in a digital world.

4) We will see the launch of the first blog fed magazine.

mediadavid

November 25, 2007 11:45 AM

Panic will begin to set in amongst advertisers and websites dependent on advertising as a new trend grows clearer.
The younger demographic so craved has developed a unique ability to totally zone out and ignore online ads...whether they are clickthrus, floating ads, targeted ads, facebook ads, or google placements.
It becomes obvious that online ad revenue will never replace old media revenue because it is not as effective as the old stuff once was.
Even user generated ads become largely passe.

Don

November 25, 2007 6:05 PM

GIS-focused content and social networking will spring up in the summer after the GIS boom this Christmas. There ain't a 30+ year old guy I know who doesn't want one of those for car, boat, or jogging either in terms of a separate Garvin or Magellan version or an integrated phone.

It won't just be, "where's the nearest gas station" it will be, "You have to check out this weird ethnic grocery store on your way back from this park" or "turn down this street to see an old neon sign and then pick up the highway at the next ramp."

B.L. Ochman

November 27, 2007 11:17 AM

Blog advertising will finally come into corporate radar as they realize - at last - that there is no better, or cheaper, way to reach tightly focused niche audiences.

However, it will be years before ad agencies begin to understand how to create effective blog advertising. And by time they do get it, new options that they won't understand will exist. :>)

Manny

November 27, 2007 5:51 PM

2008 will see more ad revenue transition away from print publications such as newspapers and the Yellow Pages to online sources. Many news media companies are already using Web 2.0 applications to create revenue streams or generate more web traffic. The Washington Post and The LA Times now incorporate blogs into their websites. The New York Times Group is partnering with companies such as search marketing companies such as WebVisible to create online advertising programs. We will see more old media-new media partnerships such as ABC and Facebook, and CNN and YouTube.
I also predict that 2008 will see a thinning of the herd in social networking sites. Many of these sites will wither and die when they fail to acquire ad revenue.

Shane Vaughan

November 30, 2007 2:22 AM

With distributed global enterprises and growing media fragmentation, media buying organizations will realize that they desperately need knowledge management and communications tools. In other words...technology will finally come to the "front-end" of the media planning and buying process.

John Fontaine

December 23, 2007 2:09 AM

The Internet will make inroads into what has been traditional Cable and Network TV bases. Game shows that are Broadcast and Webcast will allow a new kind of audience participation. It will revive a new era of Gameshows and shows not seen on TV for years will make a resurgence.

Herb Charles

December 26, 2007 7:53 PM

2008=1960? Could this be the year the Internet is responsible for determining the next President of the United States, just as TV did in 1960? For an interesting look at this, check out blogflict - blog.iconflict.com.

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The media world continues to shapeshift as new forms arise and old assumptions erode. On this blog, Bloomberg Businessweek will provide sharp analysis and timely reports on the transformation of this constantly changing terrain.

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