Turkey: Focal Point for Two Gas Pipelines

The Eurasian nation finds itself at an unusual power junction, with both the planned South Stream and Nabucco pipelines set to cross its territory

By Jaroslaw Adamowski

European opinion makers followed Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's visit to Turkey in August with keen interest. Among the 20 or so agreements he and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, signed was one initiating Turkey's participation in the South Stream natural-gas pipeline to Europe – coming less than a month after Turkey hosted a summit for European Union countries participating in the Nabucco project, generally perceived as a rival to Russia's South Stream.

Since Putin's visit to Ankara, pundits and analysts have continued to speculate on the future of Turkish-Russian relations, the dynamics of their fast-growing bilateral trade (behind the EU, Russia is Turkey's prime trade partner), or Ankara's dependence on Russia for 65 percent of the natural gas and 25 percent of the oil it consumes. Missing from many analyses was the possible impact of South Stream on Turkey's relations with the European Union, especially the bloc's members with direct engagement in Nabucco.

JITTERY LAUNCH

Nabucco was formally launched – although the question of which countries will supply its gas is far from clear – at the July joint summit with Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania, the four EU members the new pipeline is slated to traverse. The Russian authorities were also invited to the summit but chose not to attend. The project was designed to diversify Europe's energy supply with Caucasian, Central Asian, and Middle Eastern natural gas resources, but no potential source countries are formally on board yet.

Nabucco faces other problems as well. On 14 September a spokesman for the consortium in charge of the project said its completion would be delayed two years, until 2016, UPI reported. Any delay could be a gift to Russia, but as the Kremlin faces serious problems raising funds for its own energy projects, South Stream's construction could be slowed as well.

Some experts suggest that stagnation in Turkey's EU membership negotiations is the key to understanding Ankara's complex foreign policy. Turkish politicians from government circles, however, counter this notion.

"There is no link between the membership talks slowdown and Turkey's participation in the South Stream project," said Ozlem Turkone, a member of parliament for Istanbul and deputy chair of the ruling Justice and Development Party's foreign affairs department.

"Becoming an energy hub for the surrounding European and Asian regions has always been Turkey's objective, and participating in both the Nabucco and South Stream pipelines is part of it," she said. "Europe needs to diversify its sources of energy, and so does Turkey. Everyone will profit from our engagement in both projects."

Similar opinions were expressed by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Interviewed by the Turkish Kanal 7 TV channel, the minister said the South Stream project "creates a North-South energy corridor, similar to the East-West corridor of Nabucco," and therefore the two pipelines "are not substitutes for each other."

South Stream would cross Turkish waters in the Black Sea before coming ashore in Bulgaria; Nabucco is set to traverse the Caucasus and Turkey over land.

Still, such views draw criticism not only from many EU officials, who regard the pipelines as competitors and often accuse Russia of attempts to destabilize European energy security, but also from Turkey's opposition parties. "Before turning to profit, we had better check the financial side of the balance sheet in this project, which I believe is missing in the whole picture," said Mustafa Ozyurek, former general manager of Petrol Ofisi (PTOFS.IS), Turkey's major oil and gas distribution company, and currently an MP for the opposition Republican People's Party. Ozyurek said he and other experts believe the pipelines cannot both be operated cost-effectively, either by Turkey or the other partners.

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