India's Role in Burma's Crisis

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Doing Business with the Generals

Foreign Ministry officials in New Delhi stridently say their relationship with Burma is one of "pragmatic engagement." According to them, India's strategic interests lie on the side of the generals. Yes, Indians sympathize with ordinary Burmese, and Indian officials say they are using diplomatic channels to urge the generals to release Suu Kyi.

Yet India, they say, is in desperate need of natural resources, so doing business with the generals to get part of Burma's vast natural gas reserves is vital. Intelligence officials also credit the Burmese junta for helping destroy camps of anti-Indian insurgents fighting in the northeastern Indian states of Manipur and Assam. "The Burmese generals are very nice to us," says an intelligence officer in New Delhi.

Human rights groups, however, point out that the Burmese military has received $200 million in military aid from India. "India's security concerns are misplaced," says Suhas Chakma of the Asian Center for Human Rights. "In fact, the Burmese army and Indian insurgents cooperate." They also point out that India's economic interests in Burma are limited. India's lack of influence was shown up when China won the rights to explore for natural gas in western Burma earlier this year. Experts say that Beijing's ability to use its Security Council veto to keep Burma's human rights record off of the U.N. agenda is more important to the junta than any economic incentives India could offer.

Asian Diplomatic Initiative Needed

But the current Burmese crisis presents New Delhi with a chance to stake its claim in global affairs by offering an alternate solution to Burma's problems. For starters, says Uday Bhaskar, a securities analyst in New Delhi, India can use its Buddhist card. "We have a repository of Buddhist leaders with credibility in Southeast Asia," he says. "We should have been taking a Buddhist initiative, like a non-government-run convention of Buddhist leaders in the region."

But, he says, the Foreign Ministry dominates the issue of Burma and does not encourage civil society groups like the People's Union for Civil Liberties to interact with the Burmese in India. India's Communist Party, surprisingly, supports India's strategic shift on Burma in favor of the junta. But Nilotpal Basu, the Communist representative in the upper house of India's Parliament, says the government should be working more closely with neighbors. "We would like to see India and China cooperate," he says. "We would like to see an Asian diplomatic initiative on Burma—there is none so far."

India's time—and credibility—may be running out. Meenakshi Ganguly, top South Asia researcher for Human Rights Watch, worries that if India does not take the initiative with Burma now, it could lose its sheen as a champion of freedom and democracy in Asia. India already has a disappointed and resentful Tibetan community, she points out, that is now a second generation of refugees feeling hurt and let down by India's new realpolitik towards China. The Burmese are first-generation refugees, and many are still crossing the borders into India.

Long Term Approach For now, their resentment is not evident. But Mizzima News' Mungpi notes that the Indian government "says it supports democracy" but "has a double standard with the Burmese junta." He adds: "This is the beginning of the end of the military junta. The people are willing to carry on." More important, explains Roberto Herrera-Lim of consulting firm Eurasia Group, the junta is running out of money despite the support from India and China: "They're running up against their own reserves and are virtually bankrupt." Tourism is down sharply, and the regime cannot get access to Burmese Army-related bank accounts in the U.S. Governments are pressuring other countries to cut off access too.

India must think more long-term about Burma instead of viewing it through a China-tinted lens. New Delhi would do well to trade in its friendship with the regime's generals in return for global goodwill and support for a much-coveted seat on the U.N. Security Council. If the generals are broke, there's no point throwing good money after bad. Better for the Indian government to support a new Burmese regime and secure India's interest early on this time around.

Kripalani is BusinessWeek's Mumbai bureau chief .