What Will China Look Like in 2035?

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Pollution: Pollution, the researchers claim, is now at its peak. Government policy and public pressure to protect the environment will attenuate the impact of products that produce high pollution. A national initiative to develop pollution-combating technologies, together with increasing public concern, will mitigate environmental problems.

Water Resources: The shortage of water is a major restraint to China's development. Unfortunately, instead of improving, China's water resources are forecast to continue to deteriorate, even through 2030–2035.

Family Planning Policy: China's strict one-child-per-family policy will be gradually abandoned.

U.S.: Along with closer economic ties between China and the U.S., the two nations will find more and more common interests in trade, regional security, and the war on terrorism.

Taiwan: The relations between the mainland and Taiwan will become more equal and hence more harmonious. Economic and trade cooperation will replace political disputes.

Russia: China's strategic cooperation with Russia will be upgraded. However, the lack of competitiveness of Russian exports will generate unbalanced trade, which will reinforce the Russian public's growing concern of a "China threat."

Africa and Latin America: Politically, China will maintain friendly relations. However, if African and Latin American countries cannot improve the competitiveness of their manufactured products, they will not be able to change their role of simply providing China with commodities. (The researchers fear that this long-term asymmetry may trigger a backlash against China.)

Military Development: It is naive, the Chinese researchers say, for foreigners to hope that China does not enhance its military power. As its technological capabilities continue to grow, China will be able to supply itself with more self-produced military equipment. However, even out to 2035, China will still be dependent on imports for its most advanced military systems (which, they say, will limit the nation's options).

"Sensitive": Several areas were deemed too "sensitive" to forecast, including political reform, labor unions, and religion.

Dr. Kuhn, an international investment banker and senior adviser at Citigroup, is the co-editor-in-chief of China's Banking and Financial Markets: The Internal Research Report of the Chinese Government and the author of The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin, China's best-selling book in 2005.