What Will China Look Like in 2035?

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Trade Surpluses: Not likely to continue at today's levels, but no dramatic change. Although China's share of world manufacturing is forecast to continue to increase, the institute director insists that China's dependence on foreign trade must decrease as a percentage of GDP.

World-Class Companies: Thirty to forty additional Chinese companies are forecast to enter the world's top 500 by 2030-2035, most likely in telecom, petrochemicals, electric power, banking, autos, electronics, and computing. Currently, based on revenue, there are 22 Chinese companies among the world's top 500.

Automobiles: In 2006, there were 7.3 million automobiles in China. High growth is forecast: 2030, 46.7 million; 2035, 53.4 million.

Mobile Phones: In 2006, there were 480 million mobile phones in China. Low growth is forecast due to saturation and the emergence of new technologies and products: 2030, 535 million handsets; 2035, 542 million.

Internet Users: In 2006, there were 137 million Internet users in China. Modest growth is forecast to 2030, with 221 million users; low growth thereafter, with 223 million in 2035. With the progress of urbanization, the Internet will be accessible to approximately 70% of the total population.

Economic Reform: By 2030, China's economic reform will have been basically completed. The major issue will be the "adjustment of interests" among different classes.

Competitiveness in Global Markets: Chinese corporations are forecast to reinforce their international competitiveness by higher research and development and the continued advantage of comparatively low labor costs and huge economies of scale.

Financial Sector Reform: By 2030, a contemporary financial market system will be in place. Nonetheless, financial reform is forecast to be relatively slow due to the large burden of nonperforming assets on the banks.

Science and Technology Level: The nation's level of science and technology will be hampered, the government researchers state boldly, by what they call the country's "serious, systematic deficiencies." They focus on two issues: the talent dearth and the poor state of intellectual-property rights protection. China will face a shortage of top science and technology talent in the next two decades, they say, due to the "existing talent nurturing system." Thus China must make full use of overseas-trained professionals, and those trained in the U.S., Japan, and Europe will play an increasingly significant role. The researchers then made the refreshingly honest statement that only if the market economy is fully developed, and only if intellectual-property rights are protected, can China capitalize on its economies of scale in R&D to become a major world innovation center. In all cases, China's basic sciences will still lag far behind the U.S.

Telecommunications: If current barriers to free competition can be eliminated by 2030, the telecommunications sector is forecast to become the most dynamic element in China's national economy.

Social Reform: The establishment of comprehensive social security and Medicare-like systems will be the most vital aspects of social reform. The large numbers of elderly citizens, however, will impose high maintenance costs on the new social systems.

Health Care: A comprehensive health-care system must and will be set up.

Education: China will relax restrictions on its education market, which will enable "the fair competition between public education and private education." Those who know China find this forecast surprising and encouraging.

Sustainable Development/Alternative Energy: Advanced technology combined with decreasing demand for high energy-consuming products will gradually achieve sustainable development. Alternative energies, such as wind, gas, and bioenergy, will enjoy expanding markets.