Few would disagree these days that China is the world's next new political and economic power. But is that good or bad for the rest of world, which since the fall of the Berlin Wall has looked primarily to the U.S. and Europe for leadership? One's perspective, of course, depends a lot on where you live.
A new study by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Asia Society takes an interesting approach to gauging global sentiment. It polled public opinion in the U.S., China, India, South Korea, and Australia about world affairs. It's a fascinating, sprawling study, covering everything from each country's view on the torture of prisoners, to whether biological research laboratories should be subject to inspection, to the level of concern over Iran's nuclear capabilities.
One of the most surprising findings was about the perceptions of China. The study found Americans are surprisingly comfortable with the rise of China, even though they view it as a growing economic competitor and a future strategic rival in Asia. Forty-seven percent of Americans see China's emergence as mainly positive, while 46% see it as mainly negative. A solid majority of 65% think the U.S. should "undertake friendly cooperation and engagement with China" rather than try to contain it.
BENIGN VIEW. South Koreans and Australians are even more relaxed about the neighboring power, saying they see China playing a positive role in resolving key problems facing Asia. Their views of India's rise was just as benign.
It is hard to see American opinion being so quiescent just five or six years ago. Back then, China-bashing was very still much in vogue in Washington. Hawks warned constantly of Beijing's military buildup and the threat it posed Taiwan, Japan, and strategic sea lanes in Southeast Asia. President George W. Bush's first foreign policy crisis was over the collision of U.S. and Chinese jet fighters in disputed airspace. Also, memories were still fresh of the Taiwan Straits tensions in 1996, when the Clinton Administration dispatched warships to force China to abandon threatening missile tests aimed at intimidating the Taiwanese into voting against independence-leaning candidates.
What accounts for today's fairly benign view? The same Communist Party responsible for the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre is still in power, after all, and continues to harshly repress dissent. One answer clearly is that the September 11 terrorist attacks and the aggressive U.S. entanglement in Iraq dramatically shifted Americans' concerns. They now are far more worried about homeland security, rather than threats half a world away. Public opinion has turned sharply against the view that the U.S. should intervene in events far from American shores. Three in four say the U.S. "does not have the responsibility to play the role of world policeman." Perhaps even more surprising, most Americans don't even think the U.S. should get involved if China invades Taiwan, a democracy and longtime ally.
"SOFT POWER." But China's softer image also reflects much smarter foreign policy in the past few years. Rather than making bellicose threats to its neighbors, Beijing has played an active role in trying to diffuse nuclear tensions with North Korea. China has replaced the U.S. as the biggest trading partner of most Asian nations, and now has taken the lead in trying to form consensus for freer trade within the region, especially in Southeast Asia. While the U.S. under the Bush Administration has grown distant from Latin America and Russia, Chinese companies have been forging powerful trade and investment ties and Beijing has worked hard to improve diplomatic engagement. Beijing is emerging as important supplier of aid and investment to Africa, as well.
In other words, China has learned to win friends and diffuse anxieties by skillfully using "soft power." More important, Beijing has studiously avoided angry outbursts that used to inflame opinion in the U.S. While most Americans remain deeply suspicious that China may not use its growing muscle responsibly in the world, Beijing has done little lately to stoke such fears.
The Chinese public has bought much more thoroughly into the idea of China as a benevolent superpower. The majority already believe their nation is as influential as the U.S. in Asia. They believe China already is much more influential in the world than the European Union and will match U.S. clout within a decade. A full 90% of Chinese believe it's good that their military is growing more powerful, and 87% favor China taking a more active part in world affairs. While they see China still lagging behind the U.S. technologically a decade from now, they expect to zoom past Japan and Germany. Chinese leaders clearly recognize that its more assertive foreign policy is playing well with the public.
China obviously has a much loftier view of itself than does the outside world, which remains deeply nervous about the country's growing military power. But the findings should be a wake-up call to American policymakers who assume that the U.S. political leadership will remain unchallenged for decades to come. That will require a return to the kind of diplomacy that stressed "soft power" over raw military might—a lesson that Beijing seems to be learning all too well.
Engardio is an international senior writer for BusinessWeek
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