Rumblings of Instability in Azerbaijan

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"Unrest among young people is on the rise: they discuss, set up their organizations, opposition websites, and blogs," said Hajizade, of the FAR Center. "Baku's walls are splattered with hundreds of belligerent graffiti: from 'F**k Bush' to 'Allah Akbar.' Leftist movements are also gaining popularity."

The events that took place in Baku after a gunman killed between 13 and 30 people (the actual number remains undisclosed) at the State Oil Academy on 30 April were another measure of the growing dissatisfaction. After the attack people expected the government to announce national mourning and disclose detailed information about the results of the investigation. Meanwhile, the government tried to cover up the incident and did not even call off the Holiday of Flowers on 10 May, Heidar Aliev's birthday. In response, students organized a street march that attracted more than 2,000 people and was dispersed by the police. Possibly fearing that protests might continue, the authorities called off all events planned to celebrate the end of the academic year.

The growing influence of Islam, including its radical versions, could also help destabilize the internal situation. As recently as a few years ago everyone would stare at a woman dressed in a hijab, whereas today there are so many that nobody seems to pay attention. On Fridays, the Baku mosques fill up, unthinkable only a few years ago in this strongly secular society. And the city was the site of demonstrations in support of the Palestinians during the recent conflict in the Gaza Strip.

"Only Islam can save Azerbaijan from the influence of the rotten West," said Mukhtar, a student at the State Oil Academy. "The role of Islam in Azerbaijan's public life should be stronger, and the government should cooperate not only with the U.S., but also with Muslim countries."

That disillusionment with the West is a new phenomenon in Azerbaijan, and it is getting stronger. Many Azerbaijanis perceive the West as a cynical player that calls for democratization but values Azerbaijani oil more. The West is also commonly perceived as supporting Aliev's authoritarian regime. Azerbaijani opposition politicians, advocacy groups, and pro-Western elites criticize international organizations and Western governments who they say are not sufficiently critical of the government and who try not to let authoritarian practices and human rights abuses impede relations with Baku. They often recall the government's violent suppression of the demonstrations against the rigged presidential election of 2003. Although the West criticized the government at the time, opposition and civil society activists had hoped for a "color revolution" and looked on bitterly as Western officials continued to do business with Aliev.

"The strongest criticism is directed toward the U.S., on whose support everyone relied and counted only a few years ago," said Arif Yunusov from the Institute for Peace and Democracy. "The Azerbaijanis do not like the materialism and high-spending lifestyle of Western diplomats and NGO workers living in Baku, who isolate themselves from the local people, often even despise them. The policy of the West toward the world of Islam and its insufficiently active stance in the Karabakh conflict is also regarded with common disapproval."

In view of such an attitude toward the West and the common disillusionment with Western values, assurances made by politicians about the pro-Western course of the government sound barely credible.

"We'll get by," said Jaga, opening another bottle of Xirdalan beer, "if only things don't get worse." But what if they do?

Provided by Transitions Online—Intelligent Eastern Europe

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