Analysts Say U.K. Recession Is Over

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Some £125bn has been or will be soon spent by the Bank on buying government securities and pushing cash into the financial system. Mr Barrell suggested that the policy had worked so well that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee might wish to put the policy on hold. The Government's public spending increases and tax cuts had had a less dramatic effect, he added.

There has also been evidence in recent weeks that some stabilisation in the housing market may be seen over the next few months, with both the Nationwide and Halifax reporting a jump of about 2 per cent in property values last month. While such figures are usually erratic, a gradual return of buyer confidence can be glimpsed in improving figures for new buyer enquiries at estate agents and a small upturn in the number of new mortgage approvals, although these remain far below normal levels, and first-time buyers are typically being asked to find a 25 per cent deposit. The credit crisis seems to have moderated more for companies than it has for individuals.

Doubts remain in some official quarters as to the strength and sustainability of the recovery. In remarks to the Leicester Mercury during a visit to the Midlands, Kate Barker, a Bank of England policy-maker, commented that "manufacturing orders are starting to come back, but whether that's a stocking issue or a turn-up in final demand isn't so clear... The really important question is whether there's a pick-up in the economy and if people can sustain that so it continues on to autumn."

Hers are the latest in a series of cautious remarks from Bank figures over the past few weeks. "Our present view is that we think [interest] rates could stay low for quite some time," she added.

So is the recession over? View from the frontline

Theo Paphitis, owner of Ryman and star of the Dragons' Den series: "I don't think we are anywhere near the end of the recession. We have probably had a bit of growth but this will definitely be a W-shaped recession. We have got a lame duck Government."

Sir Martin Sorrell, founder of the advertising agency WPP: "We hadn't noticed. The second half looks a little better than last year but that's because the comparative period was so weak. If you're asking have we seen a significant change in economic conditions, [then] no, we haven't."

Sir Philip Green, retail billionaire: "Businesses are not being funded properly. Unless the banking sector starts doing business we are going to continue bumping along where we are."

Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs: "I think it's going to be a long protracted [global] recession. There is no reason to think this is it... So many things have to be sorted out. Why would this be the recovery? The chances are it's not."

Provided by The Independent—from London, for Independent minds

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