Fate of European Union Lies with Ireland

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Their once destitute island has become rich, partially thanks to billions of euros in transfers from Brussels. Irish per capita income surpassed the EU average a few years ago and is now even higher than in the United Kingdom and Germany. All the large political parties are stumping for a “yes.” Until recently, the surveys were one sided: not long ago 41 percent were in favor with just 33 percent opposed.

But last Friday, panic set in. The Irish Times published a poll showing that the numbers against had risen to 35 percent. Those in favor plunged to 30 percent.

Many voters are still wavering — and they are being wooed heavily by both sides. Thousands of pro-treaty billboards dot the streets with slogans like "Good for Ireland — Good for Europe." The future, the "yes" camp promises, is full of jobs, growth and security.

But right alongside those messages, the opposition is predicting privatization of the health and education systems, and higher taxes. The Irish are likewise reminded how their ancestors gave their lives in the fight for freedom — freedom which should not now be sacrificed to Brussels' hunger for power.

The Irish have shocked Europe once already. In 2001 Ireland took the continent by surprise when it rejected the Treaty of Nice, like the Lisbon Treaty, an agreement which aimed to reform the EU's decision making procedures. Then too, polls leading up to the referendum had showed a clear “yes” vote. The explanation for the failure was simple: voter turnout was under 35 percent because proponents of the treaty didn't go to the polls. Its detractors, on the other hand, had mobilized.

A year later Ireland went to the polls again, this time in sufficiently increased numbers, and accepted the treaty. But a simple redo of the vote probably wouldn't work this time around. Plus, since the Lisbon Treaty is a modified version of the constitution that fell through in France and the Netherlands in 2005, if the text is revised again, the whole delicate ratification process will have to start anew — in all 27 EU countries.

And so the Irish ministers are putting in tireless appearances on talk shows and in shopping malls. Prominent help has hastened over from the European continent as well: German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked up the treaty in Dublin as the “best preparation for Europe's future,” and European Commission President Barroso warned that Europe — including Ireland — will pay the price if the treaty is voted down.

All the fuss has even taken its toll on Ireland's former Prime Minister Bertie Ahern. Without the referendum, he could probably have waited out the investigations of dubious payments he accepted while Finance Minster in the 1990s. In light of the current situation, however, the political establishment fears voters might express their frustration with their leader by voting no on Thursday. Ahern was pushed to resign, and replaced by his deputy Brian Cowen.

There is just one area in which those in favor of the EU Constitution have failed just as completely as their opponents: no one has managed to make clear to the Irish people what is actually in the controversial document. At best 250 of Ireland's 4.2 million citizens have read the complete text, estimates Ireland's European Commissioner Charlie McCreevy. Even he himself made do with a summary.

Provided by Spiegel Online—Read the latest from Europe's largest newsmagazine

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