Merkel's Plan for Saving the G8 Summit

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Part 3: Poles Apart

The American president and his administration have a fundamentally different approach to the issue than Merkel. While Merkel insists on clear climate protection targets set by politicians, around which industry and consumers must orient themselves, Bush wants voluntary measures put into place. Fully in the tradition of American-style, laissez-faire capitalism, his administration feels that companies and consumers should decide for themselves what to do about climate protection. Regulatory incursions by government are considered harmful.

Besides this different basic understanding by the Bush administration of the role of politics and policy, there are above all worries about the growth potential of the US economy should such binding rules be put in place. By no means do the Americans want to see strict climate goals put their companies at a disadvantage against up-and-coming firms from China and India, countries which might profess a commitment to climate protection, but do little about it.

The US government would rather let the market solve the problem. For months, the Bush administration has been pumping millions into the development of new technologies to fight global warming, with the aim of making climate protection a massive moneymaker for US companies. The goal is to make American environmental technology the global market leader in a few years. Ambitious programs for the development of bio-energy, solar facilities and CO2-free power plants have been launched.

In the German government, this development in the US has been followed for some time with a mix of mistrust and admiration. Government officials think it quite possible that the Americans are playing for time with their blockade stance regarding climate protection.

"They will agree to clear climate protection targets when they become global leaders in climate protection technology," said one member of the government. In this sense, the fight for the climate is also a fight for market share.

Merkel's advisors now fear that the Americans might try to focus on separate, and to them, acceptable agreements with environmental bad guys such as China and India -- in other words, climate protection writ small.

It's with excitement and a certain amount of schadenfreude that the Social Democratic members of Merkel's cabinet watch as the chancellor suddenly finds herself in a new skirmish: Merkel has to defend herself against the Americans' initiative. The word in the Social Democratic part of the government is that the issue is going to be "a tough nut for the chancellery to crack."

But Merkel appears ready to do just that. She made clear to her negotiators that a formal agreement regarding the environment should be reached at Heiligendamm that affirms common ground even where there are major differences. As rotating president of the European Union, she feels herself obliged to defend the 2-degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) target. She also wants to reach agreement in the context of the United Nations on a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol, which runs out in 2012.

"The 2 degrees are non-negotiable as far as I am concerned," the chancellor said in an interview with DER SPIEGEL (more...).

She has instructed her sherpa not to enter into any deals, and Pfaffenbach's maneuvering room is close to zero. He only needs to glance at the minutes of the strategy meeting, where the message is more than clear: "For the sherpa, the following negotiation guidelines are set: The chancellor asks that all the quantitative goals be adhered to until the summit: in other words, the two-degree target, 50 percent reduction of CO2 by 2050 based on 1990 levels, the across-the-board and the sector-specific energy efficiency goals."

But, as summit host, Merkel cannot openly sound the alarm. She has to use stealth, cunning and charm to get her way. Heiligendamm should in no way become a synonym for squabbling and exasperation. If need be, "formulations such as 'those of us' must be used in the climate protection section of the summit declaration," according to the minutes of the preparatory meeting. Such language would draw a clear separating line among the participants.

Because there will be no final communiqué, rather a final declaration called a Chairman's Summary delivered by Merkel herself, she will have a chance to put her own mark on it. The chancellor is determined to use this opportunity for interpretational wiggle room. She can spruce up those parts that were agreed upon and sell the whole thing as a triumph of sorts.

Publicly, the looming conflict with the Americans is in no way to be ratcheted up -- softening is the order the day. "The federal chancellor asks that over the next few weeks, expectations regarding the subject of climate protection and energy efficiency be played down in public," reads one sentence in the minutes of Merkel's pre-summit meeting.

But internally, Merkel's advisors have told her that reaching a concrete CO2 reduction goal is the decisive yardstick. According to the meeting minutes, the chancellor's office manager openly expressed during the secret meeting just what her boss fears: "Baumann emphasized that the German public expects a success regarding climate protection at the G-8 summit. She fears that the summit could be seen as a failure if no convincing results are reached on climate protection."

In view of this much-feared mud-slinging match over the environment, Merkel has already changed the subject to Africa in her public communication. The poverty-wracked continent is to get additional aid money, a move that is controversial among the G-8 partners.

For some time now, the chancellor has been talking with Africa activists. She met with Bono, the singer from the rock bank U2 and one of the key figures in the anti-globalization movement. "She is a wise woman," he said after their meeting. The pop singer and political activist Bob Geldof also had some face time with Merkel, where the chancellor told him about the €750 million in additional Africa aid that Germany wants to provide in 2008.

But Merkel's summit script illustrates the point that in politics, behind every good deed there's usually a self-interested motive. The additional money for Africa is also meant to inspire Geldof to help protect the German government from bitter animosity from other quarters. According to the meeting minutes, Geldof has another role to play in addition to Africa advocate: "Bob Geldof assures her that if such a step were taken, he would personally do what he could to lobby critics like (German pop star) Herbert Grönemeyer to tone down their criticism."

Unfortunately, George W. Bush cannot be bought so cheaply.

By SPIEGEL Staff: Ralf Beste, Jan Fleischhauer, Konstantin von Hammerstein, Roland Nelles, Christian Reiermann und Gabor Steingart

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