In Parts I and II of this report from South China's Guangdong Province, the core region of China's economic reforms and opening up, I presented Party Secretary Wang Yang's vision of transformation and plans for responding to the global economic crisis. Here I describe my discussions with Guangzhou Party Secretary Zhu Xiaodan about the changes under way in the province's capital.
As I traveled through Guangdong and spoke with government officials and business executives, there was near-unanimous support for Wang Yang's vision of how to transform Guangdong. All realized the difficulties and short-term pain, and the potential for instability, but nonetheless they felt that hard decisions made now would yield a much stronger Guangdong in the future.
Arriving in the provincial capital, Guangzhou, I met Liu Zijing, president of the city's Baiyun Airport. In 2008 the airport handled 33 million passengers, almost 50 times the number in 1978, and, notwithstanding the financial crisis, Liu forecasts growth: 38 million passengers in 2010, 60 million in 2015, 70 million in 2020, and ultimately 100 million (requiring five runways). International routes from Guangzhou will increase from 57 in 2008 to about 90 in 2010, he says, reflecting the city's growing global clout. Federal Express's regional hub has already added 136 flights a week. And Liu echoed Secretary Wang Yang in highlighting the opportunities offered by the global situation. "The economic downturn is bad, no question," he agreed, "but we now have more time to adjust, develop agilely, and improve our service quality. Developing too rapidly has been burdensome," he says. "We must prioritize environmental concerns, including noise control, energy-saving procedures, and treating wastewater for use in landscaping."
When I visited Guangzhou Party Secretary Zhu Xiaodan, he started by clearing up a common misconception. "People assume that because Guangdong Province grew so rapidly in 30 years that all is new. Guangzhou, Guangdong's capital, was founded in 214 B.C. and inhabited continuously. The city center remains in the same place."
Guangzhou has long been China's most outward-looking urban area, dating back to the era when the British and Americans and others had outposts there. More recently, Guangzhou has been the home of the Canton Trade Fair, the largest and most important event that brings together importers and exporters. Known for its dense rows of slum-like shantytowns of not more than a decade ago, Guangzhou today has become of one Asia's most modern metropolises.
Secretary Zhu emphasized that the city has reached a turning point. Guangzhou's GDP increased 45 times over the three decades of reform, he said, while urban disposable income increased 55 times. In 2008, Guangzhou's per-capita GDP reached $11,600. "Compared with some cities in Asia, we still have a ways to go," Zhu said, "but compared with where we were, we've done pretty well. The question now is, where do we go from here? What's our future, and how do we get there?"
Zhu was quick to acknowledge that "we've paid a heavy price for rapid growth." Intense development was crucial in the 1980s and '90s, he explained, "because China was so poor." But now, "we cannot ignore social, political, and cultural progress. If these are neglected—particularly social imbalances and environmental pollution—we will be blameworthy. We have a duty to our country and our children. To continue in the future as we have in the past would be irresponsible."
In practice, Zhu said, this means that "our central concern must be the people's welfare, their standard of living." In 2008, Guangzhou spent 69% of its budget on medical welfare, pensions, unemployment, and other initiatives, such as providing culture to rural communities. "We strive to give rural and urban residents equal opportunities," he emphasized.
Zhu stressed that the city's model for economic development has changed.
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