Five Mobile Trends for 2008

(page 2 of 2)

I think in certain countries that will be true of mobile broadcast TV services. I think in others it will be true of streamed services. And in most I think that'll be true of user-generated video content… What we'll see increasingly is that content uploaded into a mobile space so that other users can browse it."

Another area to watch is location-based services. According to Analysys' Rehak: "You'll see it becoming more and more integrated into social networking applications in particular."

Rehak also foresees mobile media and entertainment making a racket this year but points to questions over monetising these services. "I think a lot of people have talked about mobile social networking being a big trend obviously and it will be certainly -- that's going to be a big growth area -- but the question remains as to how that is going to make money for anybody," she said.

Rehak predicts there will therefore be "a narrowing" of the business models as operators attempt to find a customer- and money-winning formula.

Femtocells -- a cost-cutting, data services driver -- or not?

They may not mushroom forth in every home this year but expect femtocells -- aka small cellular base stations installed in homes or offices, which hook up to a broadband connection to improve network coverage indoors -- to pop up in various places this year as operators kick the tyres in trials of the tech and attempt to resolve some of the questions hanging over them. Not least the big one: what's the business case?

The lure for operators is the idea of cheaply expanding 3G network coverage so they can push rich media services onto mobile users and -- in theory -- laugh all the way to the bank. But it's unlikely to be that simple. Operators are "sitting on the fence", according to Gartner's Fabre. "They are saying 'we want this to work… and if we see someone do it successfully we might follow'," he said. Finding a viable mass market business model may never happen, he adds, and femtocells could end up being a 'loss leader' -- something operators have to offer customers but can't expect to make money from, much as voice over IP.

Even so, Juniper's Holden believes the tech will be rising up the agenda by the end of the year. "There's a desire within a number of parties to see these things rolled out and brought into the home as a cheap and efficient way of enhancing 3G coverage," he told silicon.com.

Fabre also expects to see more femtocell trials and even a few small-scale launches this year -- regardless of what happens down the line.

Disruption -- not just the Google factor…

Expect the unexpected. Yahoo! is the latest contender to announce a fresh focus on the mobile world. And with the likes of Google already up and running with an offering in the space -- its Android open mobile software platform -- and also sniffing around US spectrum, the status quo is looking increasingly shifty.

"The operators have been watching Google very nervously because clearly they appreciate the enormous power this brand has," said Juniper's Holden.

Another stand-out newcomer to the mobile world that is clearly shaking things up is Apple with its iPhone. But it's not just about newbies elbowing their way in but existing players reinventing themselves. Analsys' Rehak explained: "We are seeing a huge amount of activity from non-traditional telecoms service players who want to cut across the usual lines of the traditional business models and step in where the carrier might normally be."

Rehak cites Nokia and its Ovi system as an example. "Essentially [Nokia is] taking over the job of what up 'til now the carriers have primarily focused on. It's a business model that a lot of people are watching with great interest," she said.

She added: "We're seeing that the carriers have to let go increasingly of parts of their relationship with the customer because of the activity from these other players. The question for the traditional carriers is what do you do to make sure that you still hold on to enough of the market power to be successful?"

So 2008 could end up being the year the game changes -- watch this space.

Provided by silicon.com—Driving Business Through Technology